Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, April 6.
MLB Picks Saturday | Odds Today, Predictions, Preview (April 6)
Marlins vs. Cardinals
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8 -105o / -115u | +126 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -105o / -115u | -148 |
Trevor Rogers vs. Steven Matz
This number is a little too high for the Cardinals.
Trevor Rogers may have had a bad first start of the season, but it mainly had to due with some control issues. In a very limited sample size last season he had a Location+ rating of 106, so it was a bit of an anomaly walking four batters in just five innings.
Rogers has four pitches and last season was pretty reliant on his fastball, throwing it a little over 43% of the time, but in his first start he threw his sinker, changeup, fastball and slider all around the same frequency, which is a really good sign.
The reason for that is Rogers is a groundball pitcher and has historically used his fastball up in the zone to keep hitters off balance, while his other three pitches live in the bottom part of the zone. In 2023, he had a 52% ground ball rate and will need to continue that into 2024 to be success since he hasn't improved his velocity.
The Cardinals in 2023 really struggled against left-handed pitchers, putting up only a .313 wOBA, which was in the bottom-10 of the league.
Steven Matz had a nice season in 2023, posting a 3.87 xERA, but the problem is that his stuff has taken a bit of a decline over his career. Last season, his Stuff+ rating was just 96 and in his first start of 2024 it dropped all the way down to 89 with the velocity and movement on all of his secondary pitches taking a dip.
The Marlins hit lefties much better than they did right-handers last season, putting up a .326 wOBA, and they were seventh in hard-hit percentage against them as well. There is also a pretty clear split advantage here for the Marlins who can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, which is the side of the plate Matz struggled against last season, allowing a .327 wOBA.
I have the Marlins projected at -101 for the first five innings, so I like the value on the at +120.
Pick: Marlins F5 ML (+120 via Caesars)
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White Sox vs. Royals
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | +176 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -210 |
Chris Flexen vs. Michael Wacha
Chris Flexen should not be in a MLB starting rotation right now.
The guy has proven to be a completely ineffective starting pitcher, as was evidenced last season by his 6.2o expected ERA in more than 100 innings.
The problem with Flexen is he was in the bottom five of baseball in Stuff+ and Pitching+ combined with having terrible command, which allowed hitters to destroy him. His BB/9 rate really isn't that high, but he allows way too high of a barrel rate and hard contact.
Because his stuff is terrible, he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses, so when his stuff is in the zone, opposing teams punish it.
The Royals' offense is highly underrated with the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. in the lineup, but Maikel Garcia has also been a nice bright spot for them. It's very early in the season, but the two of them lead MLB in barrels per plate appearance. Additionally, the Royals' offense over the second half of last season was 13th in wOBA and sixth in batting average.
Michael Wacha is someone who has pretty drastically over-performed his expected metrics for the last two years. He's posted an ERA below 3.4 in both 2022 and 2023, but his expected ERA has been above 4.2 in both seasons. He's not someone who brings high velocity and his pitch arsenal is well below the major-league average, having a Stuff+ rating of 89.
Kansas City and Chicago were also two of the 10 worst bullpens in baseball last season by pretty much every single metric, so I think we are going to have a really high scoring game on our hands.
I have 10.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8.5 runs at -114.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
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Padres vs. Giants
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8 -102o / -120u | -108 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -102o / -120u | -108 |
Michael King vs. Keaton Winn
It was a small, 42-inning sample size in 2023, but Keaton Winn looks to be a mainstay in the Giants rotation. He had a Stuff+ rating 0f 120 mainly because he has a pitch that can make any hitter look foolish.
Winn's splitter last season only allowed a .279 xwOBA, had a whiff rate of 34.4% and had a Stuff+ rating of 143.
Keaton Winn, Nasty Splitters. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/iLhodJWgKv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2024
He throws that pitch well over 50% of the time as well, which is why he's been so effective in such a short time. He gave up three runs in his first start against the Dodgers, but the box score was a bit misleading because he only had a 2.64 xFIP from that start and Dodgers had a .159 xwOBA against his splitter.
Michael King is now making the full-time switch from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He made 40 appearances for the Yankees out of the bullpen before moving to the starting rotation for his final nine starts. His numbers as a starter were actually pretty good with him posting a 3.04 xFIP.
Now, his first start of the season against the Giants on March 31st did not go according to plan. He ended up walking seven guys, but there was no indication coming into the season that he would have these types of control issues. Last year, he only had a BB/9 rate of 2.85 and his Location+ rating was 102.
When he's not walking guys, his stuff is actually pretty good and he does generate a lot of swings and misses. He struck out six batters in that start against the Giants and in 2023 was in the 88th percentile for K%.
He has a nasty sweeper that in 2023 had a Stuff+ rating of 144 and generated a 39.5% whiff rate. The Giants were quite literally the worst offense against sweepers last year, having a -51.9 run value.
I only have 7.4 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8 runs at -105.
Pick: Under 8 (-105 via BetMGM)
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