Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Wednesday's Game 2 MLB wild-card matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
Minnesota increased its series win probability by more than 21% with the Game 1 win, securing its first playoff victory since 2002. Typically, I would bet the Twins up to -345 (77.5% implied) or look to bet on the Blue Jays at +440 (18.5% implied) or better, with either price target representing at least a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
You can find the Twins at -340 at DraftKings; the best price on Toronto (+280, 26.3% implied) indicates that the line will never come into actionable range based on my number. We'll let our Twins series ticket from before Game 1 play out; there's no reason to double down at a lesser price and more minor edge than we already played.
Texas increased its series win probability by nearly 29% with the Game 1 upset; however, the Rays should have the starting pitching advantage in Games 2 and 3, and I still expect them to win the final two games at home and take the series nearly one-third of the time. My projection for Tampa Bay (+209) aligns with the best available price in the betting market (+210 at DraftKings), but you can bet the Rays series price if the line crosses +220 before Game 2.
Arizona improved its advancement chances by more than 27% with its Game 1 upset and has swung its chances by more than 30% in the past two days since the Brandon Woodruff injury. I would need at least +235 to back Milwaukee on the series line to win consecutive games, and I wouldn't lay more than -195 on Arizona to win one of the following two. Multiple books re-posted the Brewers at +235 or higher, and I would allocate a half unit to that wager.
Philadelphia moved to an 84.5% series favorite — a 17.5% increase — after defending the Bank at home in Game 1. Any price at -470 (82.5% implied) or better on the Phillies would technically qualify as an edge; however, some of you likely tailed my -185 ticket or Phillies 2-0 prop recommendation at plus money from before Game 1, and that's more than enough allocation for this series.
For argument's sake, I would need at least +640 (13.5% implied) to back the Marlins to stage a comeback.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8 -110o / -110u | -152 |
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Zach Eflin (full projections here)
Nathan Eovaldi went on the IL with a forearm injury in late July. Before the IL stint, the righty had an excellent season, pitching to a 2.69 ERA, 3.79 xFIP and 16.9% strikeout minus walk (K-BB%) rate, alongside a 103 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ rating.
He likely returned prematurely in early September — after injuries to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer — and has pitched at a reduced level over the past month (20.1 IP, 26 H, 21 R, 7 HR, 13 BB, 21 K) with the Rangers in dire need of pitching while fighting for their playoff lives.
His velocity is down a tick (from 95.4 mph to 94.1 mph) pre- and post-injury, and his pitch modeling metrics have fallen below average (97 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 91 Pitching+). The multi-year velocity trend for Eovaldi is also concerning:
Although he allowed seven runs in his last outing against the Mariners, Eovaldi did see his velocity (95.1 mph) return to early-season levels. However, the Rangers haven't allowed him to face more than 22 hitters since returning, and I doubt he will get a long leash in a three-game series. I'd expect him to see the Rays' lineup twice through, at most, and we'll look to target props based on usage: Eovaldi Under on strikeouts and/or outs recorded. I prefer the latter; I project Eovaldi for 13 outs recorded, bet Under 14.5 to -145, or Under 14 to -120.
Zach Eflin (3.09 xERA, 23% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+) projects as the far superior starting pitcher, and as I have shown throughout my playoff and Game 1 previews, the Rays have a substantial bullpen advantage, too.
However, I still project the Rays as more significant favorites (-155) for the first five innings (F5) than I do the whole game and would bet their F5 moneyline up to -143. Additionally, you can look to play their first three innings (F3) moneyline at the same price or better.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -102o / -120u | +124 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8 -102o / -120u | -146 |
Jose Berrios vs. Sonny Gray (full projections here)
The total for Tuesday's Game 2 between the Blue Jays and Twins simultaneously opened as high as 8.5 at some books and as low as 7.5 at others. I set the total at 7.7 runs and would still bet Under 8 to -106.
As a reminder, you should follow me in the Action Network App for bet notifications because the most significant edges that I will find in playoff betting markets — both in terms of single-game bets or series bets — will almost always come within a short time frame after a prior game in the same series ends. You can see drastically different opening numbers — or re-posted numbers in the case of series prices — from one book to the next.
While you might like to wait for the article to see my reasoning, anything you'll find here is already built into my model in some fashion, and by the time you can read this article, my most significant edges are often long gone.
Of course, massive CLV — and betting Unders, where I have beat the closing number by an entire run — have provided consistent pain this season.
Both Sonny Gray (110 Pitching+) and Jose Berrios (103 Pitching+) appeared to be peaking in September, ranking eighth and 40th, respectively, amongst 109 qualified starters (min 20 IP).
Berrios fixed a long-presumed issue with his home/road splits this season (3.85 xFIP at home, 4.12 on the road in 2023; career 3.77 at home, 4.54 on the road) and will return to the place he called home for the first six years of his career.
Still, I project Gray as the superior pitcher by nearly three-quarters of a run on a season-long ERA projection. I still have difficulty finding a clear advantage for Toronto in this series, aside from outfield defense.
I project a more substantial difference between these two starting pitchers — as opposed to the bullpens — and I would back Gray in the F5 market up to -133.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | +108 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | -126 |
Zac Gallen vs. Freddy Peralta (full projections here)
While I would recommend backing Milwaukee on the series line (to +235) before Game 2, I don't see an edge on their Game 2 moneyline, which means I am likely lower on Arizona's chances in a potential Game 3 with Merrill Kelly — a pitcher I have consistently bet against in the second half of this season — than the betting market anticipates.
However, while I don't show value on either side of the moneyline for Game 2, I do project the Game total closer to 8 runs and would bet Over 7.5 to -110.
Like Kelly, I am typically lower on Zac Gallen and Freddy Peralta than the general betting market.
Gallen overperformed (3.47 ERA, 4.16 xERA) throughout much of the season and had several indicators — including xERA and pitch modeling metrics — that suggested his actual talent level was closer to a 4 ERA rather than the 3 ERA he held until September.
Similarly, Peralta experienced a velocity dip in September. He saw his Stuff+ decline from 107 in the first half of the season to 97 in the second half and 94 over the past 30 days.
Monday's game should have flown over the total; the teams stranded 19 baserunners and went 4-for-21 with runners in scoring position. They also used 12 relievers combined, and a potential Game 3 could get messy if Wednesday's starters don't eat some innings.
The starting pitchers provide better name-brand value than their recent levels can justify; we hope the Brewers can pull away in a slugfest and get our juicy +245 series ticket to a deciding Game 3.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -154 |
Braxton Garrett vs. Aaron Nola (full projections here)
Like Tuesday's matchup, I don't anticipate having a bet on a side or a total in Marlins vs. Phillies. You can currently bet the Fish at a break-even price, but I need at least +153 or better to back Miami in Game 2.
Braxton Garrett continues to show a significant disagreement between his results and underlying indicators (3.63 ERA, 4.23 xERA the past two seasons). Pitching models aren't particularly fond of the former first-round pick (97 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+ in the second half), but he did post quality starts in seven of his 12 second-half outings.
Garrett has struggled against the Phillies, however; current Phillies own a 1.036 OPS against Garrett across 72 plate appearances, and Alec Bohm — who owns a career 139 wRC+ against lefties — may be the offensive player to target in prop markets, after hitting third against southpaw Jesus Luzardo on Tuesday. I project Bohm for 1.77 bases if he's batting third again; bet Bohm Over 1.5 bases at any plus-money price.
In contrast to Garrett, Aaron Nola was a bit unlucky this season (4.46 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 3.63 xFIP) but allowed a high number of home runs (32, for a rate of 1.49 for nine innings), which has plagued him throughout his career (1.40 HR/9). Teams who win the home run battle in playoff games win more than 90% of the time, and if Garrett (career 1.09 HR/9) can keep the ball in the yard and watch his high-variance offense get to Nola, the Marlins can force a Game 3.
Still, wait until closer to first pitch to find an actionable entry point on Miami.
Sides and Totals for Wednesday, October 4
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Milwaukee Brewers, Over 7 (-120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 7.5, -110)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (-130, Risk 1u) at Bet365 (bet to -133)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -103)
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 (-135, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -143)
- Wild Card Series Price: Milwaukee Brewers (+245, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +235)
Prop Bets for Wednesday, October 4
- Alec Bohm, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
- Nathan Eovaldi Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to 14, -120)
