We've got another Saturday filled with baseball on tap as there are 15 games on the docket today.
There are a few pitching props catching my eye, so let's dive in.
MLB Player Props, Saturday, April 6
Here’s what we have going today:
- Cardinals vs.Padres: 2:15 p.m. ET
- Angels vs. Rangers: 4:05 p.m. ET
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11:50 a.m. ET. View live odds here.
Cardinals SP Michael Wacha
The Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)
The line at 5.5 isn't that high for Wacha to hit, but he's not really a high-strikeout pitcher. In 2018, Wacha had a lackluster 7.58 K/9 and 20% strikeout rate with a robust 10.1% walk rate, per FanGraphs.
Additionally, the Padres lineup that he's set to face has just a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Wacha averaged only 5.6 innings pitched in 2018 and possessed a 9.7% swinging-strike rate, a mark which ranked 93rd among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.
Six strikeouts for Wach seems optimistic when we have him projected for 4.7 strikeouts in the FantasyLabs props tool.
Angels SP Tyler Skaggs
The Pick: Over 5.5 (+110)
Skaggs had an excellent 2018 season, sporting a 3.79 xFIP, 9.2 K/9 and 24.2% strikeout rate. He also improved his swinging-strike rate from 8.1% in 2017 to 11% that year.
I love the plus-money odds against a projected Rangers lineup that has a high 26.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
Five players in their projected lineup have strikeout rates above 23% this season. We're projecting Skaggs for 6.7 strikeouts, a 27% difference compared to what his line is set at.
I'd bet this line down to -115.
