With one game rained out, we have three games today and another three on Tuesday. There's plenty of opportunities to find value on this slate.
Tonight, our team has found value on two player props — one in the Red Sox vs. Rays game, and another in the Giants vs. Dodgers nightcap.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include those grades below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Mike Zunino 2+ Total Bases (+135)
| Red Sox vs. Rays | Red Sox (-115) |
| Time | 7:12 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | PointsBet |
Mike Zunino has some of the most insane platoon splits I've ever seen.
- 2021 Zunino vs. RHPs: .151 BA, .397 SLG, .637 OPS, 77 wRC+, 39 K%, 8.1 BB%
- 2021 Zunino vs. LHPs: .342 BA, .868 SLG, .1.287 OPS, 243 wRC+, 27.9 K%, 10.9 BB%
Surprisingly, this is a new trend for Zunino, who historically has been an average hitter against each side.
Nonetheless, Zunino has a good matchup today. He's 4-for-12 lifetime against Eduardo Rodriguez, with three of those hits going for extra bases. Zunino's 92.2 mph average exit velocity on those batted balls has added up to a .793 xSLG in the ABs.
E-Rod has been one of the biggest positive regression candidates all season, and he started to see his numbers drop down the stretch. But either way, Rodriguez has posted a 3.64 xFIP against righties this season, compared to his 2.68 xFIP against lefties.
Rodriguez has a five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam (39.9%), a changeup (23.1%), a cutter (17.7%), a sinker (11.2%) and a slider (8.1%). Meanwhile, Zunino is slugging over .500 against all those pitches. That includes .793 against the changeup, a pitch that Rodriguez has struggled with at times this season.
Mike Zunino off LHP Eduardo Rodriguez – 101.5 mph, 26 degrees (390 ft Double)
80.3 mph Changeup#Rays @ #RedSox (T6)— MLBBarrelAlert (@MLBBarrelAlert) August 11, 2021
I think Zunino has a great shot to knock around Rodriguez tonight. And if he doesn't cash this prop against Rodriguez, he'll have more chances against a Boston bullpen that is both untalented and exhausted.
This prop offers great value at the big plus-money odds.
Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)
| Giants vs. Dodgers | Giants (+184) |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Alex Wood gets a big strikeout bump when he's pitching away from Oracle Park. This season, Wood's posted a 9.65 K/9 rate at home but a 10.19 K/9 rate on the road.
As such, Wood's notched five or more strikeouts in six straight road starts.
However, nowhere is he more comfortable than in Los Angeles. The former Dodger gets real cozy pitching in his former park, as he's struck out 15 Dodgers batters over just 11 innings pitched at Dodger Stadium this season.
In his last start there, he notched seven strikeouts on just 93 pitches. He recorded a 39% called-strike-plus-whiff (CSW) rate in that start, but that's not a massive anomaly, as Wood's 32.3% CSW this season ranks in the 90th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wood for 6.1 strikeouts tonight, making over 4.5 at close to even money highway robbery.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
