After taking a good, hard look at Wednesday's pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player props tool, I've found three strikeout totals on the card that may provide value.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Edward Cabrera — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)
| Marlins vs. Nationals | Marlins (-105) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
This is Edward Cabrera's MLB debut. The Marlins' No. 2 prospect is coming off an unbelievable minor-league season, jumping from Single-A to the majors just this season.
Once seen as a sure-fire reliever, Cabrera added a plus-slider and plus-changeup to his arsenal, and the additions have made all the difference. In six Triple-A starts this season, Cabrera posted a 3.68 ERA and a 4.00 xFIP while striking out more than 14 batters per nine innings.
However, the Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting him for just 3.7 strikeouts today, indicating value on the under. I wholeheartedly agree on the analysis.
While he's shown a penchant for punchouts, it is known how many innings he'll throw in his MLB debut. Moreover, this line may be inflated by a depleted Washington lineup, but the Nationals are disciplined. Over the past 30 days, the Nats have struck out at the fifth-lowest rate in MLB (20.3%).
I'm personally playing the under 5.5 number FanDuel is offering at -148, but I think the under 4.5 number DraftKings is offering at +120 has value as well.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Josiah Gray — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Nationals vs. Marlins | Nationals (-115) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Two picks on the same game?
Yes, for sure. While the Nationals are disciplined, the Marlins are the complete opposite. Against RHPs this season, the Marlins are striking out at the highest rate in MLB (25.4%). And against RHPs over the last 30 days, the Marlins are still striking out at the highest rate in MLB (25.4%).
While Josiah Gray is also a rookie and only made his MLB debut earlier this season (with the Dodgers before he was traded in the Scherzer-Turner deal), he's proven he can strike guys out. He's averaging 10.50 K/9 through five MLB starts, and he's hit the over 5.5 number in four of them.
The Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting him at 6.7 strikeouts, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections has his total at 6.17. Between Gray's abilities, the Marlins' swing-and-miss tendencies, and our projections, the over 5.5 number has plenty of value, even at -150.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Worthy of Consideration
Lance McCullers Jr. — Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-158)
| Astros vs. Royals | Astros (-255) |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Lance McCullers Jr. is such a talented pitcher, and he's been ripping through batters recently. He's hit over 7.5 strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts, and has hit over 7.5 strikeouts in seven of his 10 road starts this season.
However, our Action Labs Player Props tool has him notching just 5.9 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections has that number at 5.98.
Why so low?
Because the Royals are impossible to strike out in Kansas City. Over the past 30 days and among home teams, the Royals are striking out at the third-lowest rate in MLB (18.3%). Extrapolate that to this full season, and the Royals are still striking out at the third-lowest rate in MLB (20.1%).
I'm on the fence with this pick given McCullers' abilities, but the Royals' lineup and our projections are suggesting value on the under. I'd consider this play but with caution.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
