With a full slate of baseball games, there are many props to choose from on Wednesday’s Major League Baseball card, and I have two strikeout props I like.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 57-47, +2.25 Units, +2.2% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) — 7.5 Strikeouts (+104/-134)
| Angels at Yankees | Yankees (-130) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Shohei Ohtani is the most exciting player in baseball. He is the ace of the Los Angeles Angels is their best hitter as a regular fixture in their lineup. Ohtani is a +105 co-favorite at DraftKings to win the AL MVP. As a pitcher, Ohtani is great at keeping runs off the scoreboard and he has a high strikeout rate. What's not to like?
Ohtani is averaging 12.44 strikeouts per nine innings and more than 5 1/3 innings per start this season. Recently, Ohtani has been going almost six innings per start. In a typical Ohtani start, he has 7.46 strikeouts. If Ohtani were to pitch for six full innings, Ohtani should have 8.29 strikeouts.
While Ohtani as a hitter should continue to mash the way he has all season, as a pitcher, he's worth fading, at least in this particular prop. As the Angels' best player while Mike Trout remains injured, Joe Maddon will likely want to avoid overworking him as we get later into the season. So while he's been going six innings or so per start, you should expect him to only go around five innings per start going forward. Additionally, his strikeout rate is unsustainably high, and it should go down as the season progresses.
The Yankees average 9.24 strikeouts per game, which is only 0.42 more than the median team. Even with strikeout-prone hitters in their lineup, Ohtani should not do that much better against the Yankees tonight as he would against a typical MLB team. At 7.5 strikeouts, the under is worth a bet and I would bet it up to -150.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Under 7.5 Strikeouts -134 (FanDuel) would play up to -150
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
Aaron Nola (PHI) — 7.5 Strikeouts (+104/-134)
| Marlins vs. Phillies | Phillies (-235) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Phillies are predictably heavy favorites against the Marlins. Philadelphia has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup with Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola has been one of the strongest starting pitchers in a solid rotation.
In 16 starts, Nola has a 5-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and 3.46 xFIP. Most importantly for strikeout props, Nola is averaging 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings and 5 2/3 innings per start. Against a weak Marlins lineup, shouldn't Nola be able to go over a seemingly modest strikeout total of 7.5?
On a typical night, Nola should pitch for 5 2/3 innings and have 6.69 strikeouts. Additionally, the Marlins lack plate discipline. While the median MLB team averages 8.81 strikeouts per game, the Marlins average 9.58 strikeouts per game, which is the sixth-worst in the league. Miami has 8.7% more strikeouts per game than the median MLB lineup. However, when you adjust Nola’s strikeout total for the Marlins' lineup, he only should have 7.27 strikeouts if he pitches as deep into the game as expected.
It's not worth trying to thread a needle by assuming that Nola either pitches for more innings than usual or has a much better strikeout rate. That is why betting on under 7.5 strikeouts at -134 odds is a good bet, and I would bet it up to -155.
Pick: Aaron Nola Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-134) (FanDuel) would play up to -150
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
