With a slate of 10 baseball games, there are many props to choose from on Thursday's Major League Baseball card.
Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like — an over and an under.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 50-47, -3.61 Units, -3.7% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Joe Ross Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
| Nationals at Marlins | Nationals (-125) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Ross is a relatively mediocre pitcher on a Nationals starting rotation that has been mediocre this season outside of Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin.
After opting out of the 2020 season, Ross has a 3-7 record with a 4.54 ERA in 13 starts. However, Ross has been consistent in his mediocrity, and he has a decent strikeout rate. That's why the over on his strikeout total of only 4.5 is an attractive bet.
Currently, Ross is averaging 8.69 strikeouts per nine innings. Typically, he has a strikeout for each inning he pitches. In 13 starts, Ross is averaging about 5 1/3 innings per start. In a typical Ross start, he pitches for 5 1/3 innings and has 5.02 strikeouts.
However, Thursday’s start against the Marlins is not a typical start. The median MLB lineup is averaging 8.79 strikeouts per game in 2021 while Miami's lineup is averaging the fifth-highest strikeouts per game at 9.64 — almost a full strikeout more than the median lineup.
With the Marlins being 10.2% more strikeout prone than the typical MLB lineup, Ross should have more strikeouts than usual. Additionally, Miami has had trouble producing runs this season as the Marlins average only 3.88 runs per game, the third-fewest in the league.
With a strikeout prone lineup that cannot produce, Ross should have at least five strikeouts against the Marlins.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160) at BetMGM (up to -175)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
Walker Buehler Under 7.5 Strikeouts +115)
| Dodgers at Cubs | Dodgers -250 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Buehler has been one of the league’s best and most reliable pitchers this season. In 14 starts, he has a 7-0 record with a 2.38 ERA. However, Buehler also has a 3.66 xFIP and only 8.74 strikeouts per nine innings.
Buehler has pitched well this season, but he is not unbeatable despite his undefeated win-loss record. The question for Thursday night’s game is whether his strikeout total at only 7.5 strikeouts is set too low.
Unsurprisingly, Buehler has pitched for many innings per start this season. As a result of his strong play, the Dodgers are trying to milk Buehler for as many innings as they can. Currently, he's averaging almost 6 2/3 innings per start, which is an accomplishment in a league where the typical starter only pitches for five innings.
However, in a typical start, Buehler has fewer than 7.5 strikeouts as he pitches for about 6 2/3 innings and has only 6.31 strikeouts. Even when you adjust Buehler’s total for Chicago’s strikeout prone lineup, he should still go under his total.
It will take a lot of stones to bet on Buehler to go under his total, but at +115 on BetMGM, it is a smart bet to make.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115) at BetMGM (up to -110)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
