For my Monday MLB player props, I'll be looking into hits allowed plays for two starting pitchers, Tanner Houck and Framber Valdez.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Monday, April 14.
MLB Prop Picks — Monday, April 14
- Tanner Houck Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-130, DraftKings)
- Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Rays Player Props: Houck to Continue Kind Start
Houck has been kind to us during the first month of the MLB season, and he's in line to cash for us again on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Houck has been fortunate to navigate a decent amount of hard contact and a lack of whiff through his first three starts of the year, and it's primarily because of his ability to generate ground balls.
Houck's ground ball rate is in the 54th percentile and is only due to go up if he continues to regress positively to prior results.
That makes the Rays a great matchup for him, as they hold the fifth-highest ground ball rate in the league.
He stayed under this number in 60% of his starts last season and has done so in his last two outings of this year.
Back Houck to make it three consecutive unders.
Astros vs. Cardinals Player Props: Valdez Against St. Louis
Next, we head to St. Louis, where Valdez is set to take the ball for the Astros against the Cardinals.
Like Houck, Valdez is a ground ball artist, as his ground ball rate ranks in the 78th percentile. However, Valdez also possesses more strikeout potential.
Valdez has allowed a great deal of hard contact through his first few starts of the year, though, and unlike Houck, Valdez has to contend with a Cardinals lineup that's been crushing lefties and ranks 19th in ground ball rate.
Dating back to last season, the Cardinals rank fifth in team batting average and third in BABIP against left-handed pitching.
They also have the seventh-lowest whiff rate thus far.
This is a bad matchup for a pitcher like Valdez, who tends to pitch to contact. He went over this line in 62% of his starts last season, and we should see some impending regression notch another over on Monday.
