MLB Player Prop Picks: 3 Bets for Roansy Contreras, Bailey Ober and Robbie Ray (Wednesday, September 21)

I've taken a good, long look at our Action Labs projections today, and there are three pitchers our model loves to go over their strikeout totals today.

All three of these plays are top-rated plays by our projection systems, and I've found other reasons to back these pitchers today, as well.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Let's dive in.

Roansy Contreras Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Roansy Contreras is a pitcher you should keep an eye on going into next season. He has elite stuff, ranking above the 80th percentile of pitchers in fastball velocity, fastball spin rate and curve spin rate.

As a result, Contreras ranks above the 80th percentile of pitchers in chase rate, as you can witness below.

Contreras hasn't been uber-consistent at recording strikeouts in the majors, but his minor-league stats show he has the ability to (over 12 K/9 in both Double-A and Triple-A).

Contreras has hit this line in 10 of his 18 starts this season, striking out at least five on nine occasions. The Yankees are a scary offense, but the projections adore Contreras today:

• The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.2 Ks
• FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 5.1 Ks
• Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.6 Ks

There's too much value in these numbers to not bet on Contreras today.

Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Bailey Ober Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Bailey Ober is a reliable young pitcher. A change in his mechanics last season saw him find a big velocity jump, and his 6-foot-9 frame has created an extension that ranks in the 97th percentile of starting pitchers.

The nitpick is that Ober overperforms his expected statistics, but I'm not putting too much stock in that.

Ober has spent some time on the IL this season but has managed to eclipse this number despite a short leash. Ober has cashed over 3.5 Ks in six of eight starts this year while tossing over 80 pitches in a start just once.

Ober also overwhelmed Triple-A opponents in rehab starts. It's worth mentioning, Ober ranks above the 75th percentile of starting pitchers in Swinging-Strike rate in his limited action this year.

Dating back to last season, Ober has cashed over 3.5 Ks in 22 of 28 starts without ever tossing more than 93 pitches.

That brings us to Kansas City, as the Royals boast a disciplined lineup. However, Ober has struck out over 3.5 batters in all four starts against the Royals since 2021. He recorded a 30% CSW rate across the four starts and never threw over 75 pitches.

No matter the length Ober is given tonight, he should strike out at least four Royals. The projection systems agree, too:

• The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.2 Ks
• FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.5 Ks
• Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.1 Ks

I'm all in on Ober tonight.

Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Robbie Ray has failed to hit this number in three straight games. He's allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts and 10 total innings, and the Mariners lost both of those games.

However, this might just mean Ray is undervalued. He still ranks above the 85th percentile in swinging-strike rate, above the 80th percentile in whiff rate, and above the 70th percentile in chase rate.

Ray's top three pitches have whiff rates above 22.5%, including a 40.5% whiff rate on his infamous slider.

And his last few starts don't matter. Ray has abused the A's in the past. Ray has a lifetime 2.30 ERA in five starts against Oakland with 47 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings (13.5 K/9). Ray struck out at least 10 A's in four of those five starts.

Ray's last start against the A's:

• 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 20.5% SwSt, 33% CSW, 12 Ks

Here are the projections for Ray today:

• The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 8.2 Ks
• FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 8.0Ks
• Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 7.2 Ks

I wouldn't be surprised to see Ray strike out 15 Athletics in tonight's matchup.

Pick: Over 6.5 Ks (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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