With some afternoon baseball, Wednesday's MLB slate offers the perfect opportunity to get over the mid-week hump. Here are my MLB player props for the Mets' Jose Quintana and Yankees' Nestor Cortes on Wednesday, September 18.
MLB Player Props for Wednesday — 9/18
- Austin Gomber Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-110, DraftKings)
- Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Player Props: This Matchup is Overrated
Gomber will get the ball for the Colorado Rockies this afternoon, and on paper, he has a nightmare matchup.
Gomber will be up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank first against left-handed pitching in wRC+ and OBP.
However, this matchup is being overrated. Even at Coors Field, this number is too high for Gomber.
Gomber has allowed six hits or less in 22 of his 28 starts this season, three of which have already come against Arizona.
Additionally, he's due for some positive regression, as his SIERA and xFIP are about a third of a run lower than his FIP (4.97).
Gomber is in line for another successful outing against Arizona, so take advantage of the plus-money price.
Pick: Austin Gomber Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
Nationals vs Mets Player Props: Strikeout Prop for Jose Quintana
Quintana has gotten off to a dynamite start in September. Through two outings, he has yet to allow an earned run, has only let up eight hits and has struck out 10 batters over 13 innings of work.
However, tonight, he faces a young — but disciplined — Washington Nationals lineup that can put the ball in play with the best teams in baseball. The Nats rank 26th in strikeout rate against lefties this season.
Quintana has dominated this lineup in two matchups in 2024. He has yet to allow a run against the Nationals, but he has combined for just six strikeouts in 14 innings, with five of them coming in one start.
It's clear that even when Quintana is at his best, the Nats won't whiff often against him.
So, if we see him take a slight step back tonight, we shouldn't see many strikeouts from the veteran lefty.
Pick: Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Yankees vs Mariners Player Props: Nestor Cortes Trends
Our last stop will be in Seattle, where Nestor Cortes will toe the rubber for the New York Yankees. Cortes has put together a solid campaign, pitching to a 3.90 ERA over 29 starts.
However, one common theme for him this season has been hits, and his opposition has racked them up against him.
Cortes has allowed at least five hits in 20 of his 29 starts.
A hit rate like that shows that even when he's sharp, teams are still likely to find some grass.
Heading into tonight's outing, Cortes is due for some regression, as his SIERA of 4.10 and xFIP of 4.24 are much higher than his season-long FIP of 3.93.
Additionally, the Mariners' lineup has been hitting lefties well lately. They're sixth in wRC+ and seventh in OBP against them over the last month.
All of this points to the Mariners having success against Cortes, so like above, pounce on this mispriced prop.
Pick: Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
