MLB Player Props: Corbin Burnes Pick for Orioles vs Nationals
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Orioles vs. Nationals
Tuesday, May 7
6:45 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Corbin Burnes
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Burnes has been lights-out this season, and his 26% strikeout rate is right around where I have his expected K rate.
This bet isn’t necessarily a fade of Burnes as it a product of this tougher matchup. The Nationals' expected lineup has the second-lowest expected strikeout rate for Tuesday's slate.
Also, Nationals Park is always a tougher park to rack up the Ks. According to Statcast Park Factors, it’s the second-lowest strikeout rate over the past three seasons. Burnes only has a 17% K rate there.
I'm projecting Burnes with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.
