Few hitters have had a better week than Willy Adames, who homered yet again yesterday. He'll look to remain hot on Tuesday night against Steven Matz as the Brewers attempt to take their second game of their series against the Cardinals.
Additionally, two pitchers that I'll be targeting today are David Festa and Reid Detmers. Let's dive into my Tuesday MLB player props.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props for Tuesday — 9-3
- David Festa Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)
- Willy Adames to Record 2 Total Bases (+130, FanDuel)
- Reid Detmers Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-130, BetMGM)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Twins vs Rays MLB Player Props: Nice Matchup for Rookie
In nine appearances, eight of which were starts, Twins rookie Festa has 51 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. Festa has struck out six batters or more in six of his last eight starts, with a season-high nine against the Cubs. He was also hooked on five strikeouts in a start against the Cardinals.
Against the Rays, the hook shouldn't be in play tonight.
Tampa Bay ranks sixth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season and has climbed to third-highest over the last 15 days.
Joe Boyle, Mitch Spence, Joey Estes, Osvaldo Bido, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert are among the right-handers that have went over their strikeout lines in the last two weeks against the Rays. Spence, both Bobby and Bryce Miller and Gilbert all struck out nine or more.
Per StatCast, Festa ranks in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate. He's also in the 73rd percentile in chase rate and 69th percentile in whiff rate, while relying on a three-pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball, slider and changeup.
Festa's stuff has helped him average 1.2 strikeouts per inning, which may come in handy tonight.
Festa has pitched five innings in six of his appearances, but six innings just once — albeit in his last start. That means he may only have five innings to hit this line, but that hasn't been an issue for him thus far.
The Rays' offense is 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the last 15 days. If Tampa continues to struggle tonight, Festa may pile up the strikeouts.
Pick: David Festa Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Cardinals vs Brewers MLB Player Props: Adames Streaking
Adames enjoyed the Brewers' trip to Cincinnati over the weekend as he homered in all four games in the series while his team took three of four games. Great American Ballpark is a hitters' haven, but the fun didn't end there.
As the Brewers returned home yesterday, Adames homered again and hit his 29th long ball on his 29th birthday, making history in the process.
With his five-game home run streak, Adames' tied the Brewers' franchise record for longest home run streak, and he also tied the longest home run streak by a shortstop in MLB history since 1900.
Adames has now homered in seven of his last 10 games, and he's +500 on FanDuel to hit No. 30 tonight.
With his recent power surge, Adames has recorded two total bases in eight of his last 10 games. In that span, he's hitting .333 with seven home runs, 14 runs batted in and 11 runs scored.
While he may hit this line with another home run, Adames also has four multi-hit games in that stretch.
Tonight, Adames will face Cardinals left-hander Matz, who's owned this matchup thus far, with Adames being 0-for-6 with two strikeouts against him.
However, Matz has allowed six doubles, three home runs, a .344 batting average and a .911 OPS to right-handed hitters. He also a 6.18 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings this season.
Adames' OPS is nearly 100 points at home, and he has 16 home runs at American Family Field.
Given how hot he is, I like Adames' chances of correcting his struggles against Matz. If not, he'll likely have a couple of chances against the Cardinals' bullpen, with Matz making a spot start.
Pick: Willy Adames to Record 2 Total Bases (+130)
Dodgers vs Angels MLB Player Props: Detmers in Bad Spot
While Matz will be making his first start since April 30, Detmers will make his first start in the majors since June 1.
Detmers got off to a dazzling beginning to this season, with a 1.19 ERA through his four starts, which included 12 strikeouts against the Red Sox.
However, over his next eight starts, he went 0-6 with an 8.93 ERA while allowing 10 home runs, 20 walks and a .304 opposing batting average in 40 1/3 innings.
He allowed three earned runs or more in each of those eight starts and four earned runs in seven of them.
Detmers was sent down to Triple-A Salt Lake to get himself right, but his struggles continued. In 14 starts, he went 6-6 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing 18 home runs.
His return to the Angels won't be an easy one as he gets the Dodgers tonight. The Dodgers are entering this series hot, having won 11 of their past 14 games. They've scored four runs or more in nine of those games and scored 32 runs in their four-game series against the Diamondbacks.
Detmers has allowed three earned runs in two of his last three starts against the Dodgers, allowing four and seven earned runs in those outings.
This time around, the first batter he faces will be former teammate Shohei Ohtani, who knows him as well as anyone, having been apart of the same rotation for the past four three years.
I wouldn't rule out Ohtani homering off Detmers, but if he gets on base at all, he may be looking to run. Detmers allowed 13 stolen bases over his last eight starts, and Ohtani is up to 46 stolen bases after swiping three yesterday.
Additionally, Detmers has allowed home runs to Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Will Smith, in addition to two doubles to Teoscar Hernandez.
If Detmers pitches four innings or more, the Dodgers should score at least three runs off Detmers, and I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a crooked number once again.
Pick: Reid Detmers Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-130)
