Last night, Yainer Diaz was the hero with his walk-off home run to give the Astros a 5-4 victory. He’ll look to stay hot against Nick Pivetta tonight.
Three other players I’ll be targeting tonight include Edward Cabrera, Noelvi Marte and Adolis Garcia.
Let’s dive into Tuesday’s MLB player props.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props (Tuesday, Aug. 20)
- Edward Cabrera Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-170, DraftKings)
- Noelvi Marte/Adolis Garcia 1 Strikeout Parlay (-102, DraftKings)
- Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, BetMGM)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individuals and their relationships player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Player Props: Fade Cabrera
Cabrera tossed two consecutive scoreless games to begin the month against the Braves and Padres. Despite this, he enters tonight's outing with a 5.79 ERA after allowing six earned runs in four innings in his last start.
As a result, he's allowed two earned runs or more in nine of 13 starts this season.
Cabrera has shown flashes of electric stuff as he's had 118 strikeouts in 99 1/3 innings. He ranks in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate and 83rd percentile in whiff rate. However, piling up strikeouts may prove difficult for him tonight as the Diamondbacks are 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Cabrera also can work himself into trouble by issuing free passes, ranking in the fifth percentile in walk rate.
This line is perplexing to me for several reasons.
In addition to his own struggles, Arizona is favored (-155) tonight and it's 21-8 since the All-Star break. In that span, it's averaging 6.3 runs per game, including scoring nine last night in the first game of this series.
Cabrera's outs recorded line is 15.5, so the Diamondbacks should have five innings to push across two runs. He posted four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings last season against Arizona while walking four.
Most earned runs lines are 2.5, and if this line moves (likely at plus odds), it would still be very playable.
However, I struggle to see Arizona not scoring at least two runs off Cabrera, making this one of my favorite plays on the board tonight.
Pick: Edward Cabrera Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-170)
Reds vs. Blue Jays & Pirates vs. Rangers Props: Strikeout Parlay
Marte was once the prized prospect in the Luis Castillo trade, and he proved why when he hit .316 with an .822 OPS and 1.1 WAR in 35 games last season.
His second season has been a struggle, though, as he's hitting .181 in 40 games.
Most noticeable has been the increase in his strikeouts as he struck out 25 times in 123 plate appearances last season. This season, he's up to 48 strikeouts in 154 plate appearances for an 11% increase in his strikeout rate.
Marte has struck out in 29-of-40 games this season and in seven of his last 10 games more recently. He'll face Jose Berrios tonight, who has 50 strikeouts against right-handed batters this season. Marte has 28.8% strikeout rate and 34 of his 48 strikeouts have come against right-handed pitchers.
Marte should see at least three plate appearances tonight if he's in the starting lineup. He didn't play last night, and if he remains out of the lineup, I like Tyler Stephenson as a replacement, as he's also struck out in seven of his last 10 games.
Unlike Marte, Garcia has been hot as he enters tonight's game hitting .328 with three home runs and eight runs batted in August for the Rangers.
Despite that, Garcia has struck out in 13-of-16 games, including last night. Garcia has 128 strikeouts in 120 games this season and 61 of them have come at home, where he's hitting just .202 this season.
Garcia has a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and he gets Mitch Keller for the first time tonight. The Pirates right-hander will be looking to bounce back off a pair of rough outings in California against the Dodgers and Padres.
He has 125 strikeouts this season, making him a good target to punch out Garcia.
Pick: Noelvi Marte/Adolis Garcia 1 Strikeout Parlay (-102)
Red Sox vs. Astros Player Props: Diaz To Rack Up the Bases
Last night, Diaz became the first player this season to strike out because of a timeout violation in the seventh inning. His next time up, he made sure not to let the count to get to two strikes, hitting a walk-off homer on the first pitch in the ninth inning.
Diaz finished 2-for-5 with two runs scored on the night. It was his third straight game with two hits and fifth in his last 10 games.
Since June 3, Diaz is hitting .339 with 11 doubles, two triples, 11 home runs, 47 RBI and an .894 OPS. In that span, the Astros are 41-20, as Diaz has been an integral part in helping them reclaim first place in the AL West.
He's hitting .306 at home and .305 against right-handed pitchers.
Tonight will be his first look at Pivetta, but he may be able to take advantage of the matchup. Right-handed hitters have 10 doubles, two triples and 12 home runs in just 204 at-bats — to go along with a .265 batting average and .807 OPS — against Pivetta.
Diaz has a hit in eight of his last 10 games, and he's recorded two total bases in seven of them. A fourth consecutive multi-hit game — or an extra-base hit — will clear this line. If you're thinking he gets there via two hits, you can back him at +190 on FanDuel tonight.
