For my MLB player props on Monday, April 22, I'm targeting both starting pitchers in the Orioles vs Angels game: Albert Suarez and Reid Detmers.
MLB Player Props: Expert Bets for Albert Suarez, Reid Detmers, Keaton Winn
Albert Suarez
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
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Albert Suarez returned to MLB after playing two seasons in Korea — like a handful of other pitchers, he seems to have returned as a much improved pitcher.
He has a solid 96 mph fastball and 87 mph cutter combo, and the slight pause at the top of his delivery is making it tough for hitters to time him up right now.
Suarez only managed a 19% K rate in his first start, but the underlying data was encouraging as he had an expected K rate closer to 30%.
It’s unlikely teams will continue to swing at 80% of pitches in the zone and have a contact rate of 67% on pitches outside of the zone. Therefore, he should get more called strikes, and swings and misses going forward. He’s a pitcher to invest in right now.
The Angels put out a pretty strikeout-friendly lineup, so I’m projecting Suarez closer to -200 to go over 4.5.
Reid Detmers
Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Reid Detmers is off to a great start and his top three pitches have all generated a 30%+ whiff rate. His underlying metrics point to a 31% expected K rate after his first few starts.
The Orioles have the fourth-highest chase rate, which should play right into Detmers' strengths and allow him to rack up strikeouts.
I’m projecting Detmers closer to -150 to clear 6.5 Ks, so getting this prop at +120 is a nice bonus.
Keaton Winn
Under 1.5 Walks (+115)
Keaton Winn has a 9.2% walk rate through four starts, but he has a 4.4% expected walk rate based on his underlying metrics so he should be due for some pretty significant regression.
Winn has nearly everything needed to have a low walk rate. He throws a first-pitch strike at a high rate, throws in the zone at a high rate and pitches to contact with teams swinging at a higher rate against him. He get batters to chase at a high rate, but the Mets might offset that a bit as they have the seventh-lowest chase rate.
I think this is a great spot to invest in a young pitcher who has a high walk rate to start, but has all of the underlying factors that could allow his walk rate to plummet.
I'm projecting Winn to go under 1.5 walks at closer to -140.
