The Friday, April 5, MLB slate is loaded and I've identified three pitcher props that have value.
Here are my MLB Player Props: Expert Strikeout Picks for Jared Jones in Orioles vs Pirates, Erick Fedde in White Sox vs Royals and Freddy Peralta in Mariners vs Brewers.
MLB Player Props: Expert Strikeout Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner's top player prop picks from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:12 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Orioles vs. Pirates
Jared Jones
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
By Sean Koerner
It’s never good to overreact to one game, but in Jared Jones’ case, it’s all we have to go off of after he made his MLB debut last week, striking out 10 in 5 ⅔ innings against the Marlins.
The underlying metrics support his dominant performance as his lethal fastball-slider combo generated a 19% swinging strike rate.
The Orioles will undoubtedly be a tougher test for him than the Marlins, but I think he matches up well against Baltimore.
Jones threw a first-pitch strike at a very high rate (70%) in his debut and the Orioles have the lowest first-pitch swing rate (23%) in the early season. We could see Jones get up on the count 0-1 at a higher rate, which would help provide him more 0-2 or 1-2 counts.
I’m not projecting a ton of value here with a fair price of -130 on over 5.5 Ks, but I think I’m being a bit too conservative. Jones has a ton of upside in this market and I think he is a player we will want to invest in before the market catches up.
Pick: Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
White Sox vs. Royals
Erick Fedde
Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-142)
By Sean Koerner
Fedde left MLB last season to play in the KBO and ended up winning MVP. He’s back in the bigs this year and he looks like a completely different pitcher.
He debuted a new sweeper-splitter combo that's resulted in a career-high 10.3% swinging strike rate. Both pitches have allowed Fedde to get hitters to chase more often (career-high 26.4% through one start).
While the Royals don't offer a ton of strikeout potential, they have chased at the fifth-highest rate this year (33%), which should play into Fedde’s new and improved stuff.
I'm projecting him closer to -200 to go over 3.5 strikeouts.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta
Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-135)
By Sean Koerner
Peralta racked up eight strikeouts against the Mets in his first start of the season. While he should continue to be able to maintain a high K%, his underlying metrics don’t support his 42% strikeout rate from his first start.
He was only able to generate a swinging strike rate of 11.8%, which was his lowest rate since his rookie season. He also struggled at pitching around the edge, where he threw just 37% of the time in his opening start (which would be a career low). That tells me he didn’t quite have his A+ stuff and the Mets bailed him out a bit.
The Mariners are a plus matchup (in terms of strikeouts) for most pitchers, and that’s the case here. However, they have the third-lowest swing rate on the season and I think that could benefit them a bit here if Peralta continues to struggle to find the zone, or even the edge in an attempt to get them to chase.
I’m projecting him closer to under 8.5 at -280.
