With the regular season winding down, the pennant races are captivating the league with divisions and wildcard spots still up for grabs. Byron Buxton and Walker Buehler are a pair of players I will be targeting. Meanwhile, Charlie Blackmon’s farewell tour continues in Colorado. Let’s begin in the Rocky Mountains for today's MLB player props.
MLB Player Props Thursday — 9/26
- Charlie Blackmon Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, BetMGM)
- Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-120, DraftKings)
- Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110, BetMGM)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Cardinals vs. Rockies Player Props: Near The End of The Road for Blackmon
Charlie Blackmon is a career .293 hitter with a .832 OPS. As he winds down his 14-year career this week, he still does not have much trouble getting on base. With the Cardinals in town, Blackmon has two hits in each of the first two games in this series. While yesterday's hits were both singles, he had a double and triple on Tuesday.
Blackmon is +170 for two hits on FanDuel tonight. However, he has also now recorded two total bases in four of his last five games overall and against the Cardinals. This afternoon, Blackmon will face Cardinals' right-hander Kyle Gibson. Blackmon has not enjoyed a lot of success against Gibson, but he does have two hits in 10 at-bats.
Gibson has also struggled against left-handed hitters this season as he has allowed 19 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs, and a .796 against left-handed hitters. Blackmon has a higher batting average against left-handed pitchers (.270), but most of his power has come against right-handed pitchers. He has 31 of his 40 extra-base hits this season against right-handed pitchers, including 10 home runs. Whether it is through via an extra-base hit or another multi-hit game, I expect Blackmon to record two bases today.
Pick: Charlie Blackmon Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Marlins vs. Twins Player Props: Buxton Standing Out for Miami Matchup
Entering last night, the Twins had lost three straight and eight of their last 10 games to fall two games back of the Royals and Tigers in the AL wildcard race. They were in danger of losing another after falling behind 3-0 to the Marlins last night. However, Byron Buxton tied the game with a solo home run in the third inning. He finished 2-for-4 as the Twins went on to an 8-3 victory to keep pace.
Buxton now has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games and has hit his typical over 1.5 hits + runs + runs batted in line in eight of his last 10 games. Tonight, he is bumped to 2.5, which reduces the recent hit rate to five of his last 10 games. However, he has also reached this line in three of his last five, which came when he also had two hits in those three games.
I like Buxton's chances to get two hits (+165) tonight, but I also like his chances of going deep again as well. Last Friday, I faded Valent Bellozo against the Braves. While Matt Olson did not homer off him, Bellozo gave up two home runs and now has allowed 12 home runs in his last seven starts. Bellozo ranks in the seven percentile with a 5.17 xERA and fifth percentile with a 11% barrel percentage.
Conversely, Buxton ranks in the 85th percentile or better in barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, xSLG, and average exit velocity. Considering this matchup, Buxton's odds for a home run are not great today between +160 and +200 odds. However, if he barrels one up of Bellozo, he likely leaves the yard and cashes his HRR line in the process.
Pick: Byron Buxton Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-120)
Padres vs. Dodgers Player Props: How San Diego May Get To Buehler
Speaking of struggling starters, Walker Buehler comes into his last start of the regular season 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA. While he has been a bit unlucky with a 4.81 xERA, that still ranks in the 15th percentile. He also ranks in the 17th percentile or worse in xBA, chase percentage, and whiff rate.
Buehler has allowed three earned runs in nine of his 15 starts this season and now faces a Padres lineup that is eighth in the MLB in runs scored. Buehler typically has not worked deep into his starts, but he has pitched five innings at least in each of his last four starts. The Padres may have to get him early tonight, but they did get three earned runs off him in 3 1/3 innings in May.
If they do get to him tonight, it may be via the long ball. Buehler has allowed 16 homers in 70 1/3 innings this season, with eight apiece to left and right-handed hitters. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth are all possibilities to leave the yard tonight. Tatis already has four home runs off Buehler while Merrill is 2-for-2 against him.
Pick: Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110)
