Saturday's MLB slate is filled with action, and with pennant races heating up, each starter knows the importance of their outings. I've found three starting pitchers to target in the player prop market today.
With the first pitch nearing, let's dive into my MLB player props for Saturday, Sept. 7.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Saturday, Sept. 7
- Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)
- Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105, bet365)
- Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Yankees vs Cubs Player Props: Clarke Schmidt Returns From Injury
Clarke Schmidt will get the ball for the Yankees this afternoon, and it will be the first time we've seen him since May. Schmidt has been hampered with an injury, but it will be interesting to see if he can regain the form we last saw him in.
Prior to the injury, Schmidt had appeared to have turned a corner. He held a 2.52 ERA in 11 starts while having a strikeout rate in the 79th percentile. Those 11 starts were a much different version of Schmidt than what we saw last season, where he had a 4.64 ERA and struck out less than a batter per inning. We have to figure out which version we're going to see this afternoon.
We may not see Schmidt out there long. He only threw 70 pitches in his final rehab appearance five days ago, so if he's likely to go five innings or less, that drastically shrinks his window to record strikeouts. Not to mention, racking up strikeouts won't be an easy task today. The Chicago Cubs have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against righties over the last month.
Lay the juice and take the under here.
Diamondbacks vs Astros Player Props: Tough Assignment for Eduardo Rodriguez
Next, we turn our attention to a familiar face in Eduardo Rodriguez. We faded him in his last start against the Dodgers, and now he has an equally tough assignment in front of him today with the Houston Astros.
E-Rod's counting stats are inflated from one bad start, but his contact metrics are alarming. His strikeout rate sits in the eighth percentile, and his barrel rate also ranks in the bottom-10% of qualified pitchers. Those are metrics you can't take into a start against the Astros. Houston is sixth in wRC+ and 10th in OBP over the last month, and their lineup is bolstered by the return of Kyle Tucker yesterday.
Aside from the likelihood that Rodriguez gets hit around today, it appears Arizona doesn't trust him to see a lineup the third time through. E-Rod has gone under this total in all five of his starts this season, and has only thrown more than 90 pitches in two of them.
Fade E-Rod until he proves to us he can be successful deep into a ballgame.
Blue Jays vs Braves Player Props: Jose Berrios Draws Favorable Matchup
Jose Berrios finally figured it out in the month of August. He went 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA and struck out 37 batters in 39 innings pitched. That strikeout rate is a big jump up from his 19% on the season. He should carry that momentum over into his first start in September as he gets to face a strikeout prone Braves lineup.
The Braves are still dangerous, but their biggest issue is making contact. They have the second-lowest zone contact rate and the ninth-lowest chase contact rate in baseball. This has led to Atlanta having the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties this season. There are not many better matchups for strikeouts than the Braves right now, and Berrios has shown he can surpass this total.
Berrios has recorded at least five strikeouts in 64% of his 28 starts this season, which includes hitting the mark in nine of his last 10 starts. Given how well Berrios has been pitching, it's hard to see him not striking out at least five Braves tonight.
