I came out ahead yesterday with a profitable 2-1 performance on MLB player props. Now, we must end the weekend on a high note by building on our winning day. Luckily, I've got three more starting pitchers who will help us with that.
Let's take a look at my MLB player props for Zac Gallen and Ronel Blanco on Sunday, September 15.
MLB Player Props for Sunday 9/15
- David Festa Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- Ronel Blanco Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120, bet365)
- Zac Gallen Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Reds vs Twins Player Props: Favorable Draw for David Festa
David Festa's great stuff has been apparent since he arrived on the big-league circuit. Through 10 starts, his 28.6% strikeout rate sits in the 86th percentile, making him amongst the game's elite in racking up punchouts.
This afternoon, he has the potential to produce a ton of whiffs as he takes the mound against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have the fifth-lowest chase contact rate and the 11th-lowest zone contact rate in baseball.
Those numbers have led them to hold the fourth-highest team strikeout rate against righties this season. The matchup is there for the taking, and Festa has proven he can exceed this number as he's gone over it in seven of his 10 starts.
Astros vs Angels Player Props: Expect a Quality Start From Ronel Blanco
Ronel Blanco has quietly eaten up a great deal of innings for the Houston Astros this season. He has gone over this total in 70% of his 26 starts this season, and we should see him add to that total today.
Blanco gets to take the mound against the Los Angeles Angels, who have been one of the weaker lineups against righties this season. The Angels rank 28th in OBP and 27th in wRC+ while also holding the seventh-lowest team xBA.
Blanco's success this season has come from generating soft contact and the Angels profile as a lineup that will oblige in that category. The key for him to work deep into this game is to get ahead, as walks have driven up his pitch count.
Although, if he pitches to contact against these Angels, we should see Blanco turn in a quality start this afternoon.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Player Props: Trust Zac Gallen?
Zac Gallen has been a tough pitcher to handicap this season. He's had starts where he looks like a dominant ace, and then others where he looks very hittable.
There's uncertainty about Gallen entering every start because he has a successful track record, but it's clear he's not quite the same guy this year. His numbers point to some significant regression, as his xERA and SIERA are well higher than his ERA on the season.
He'll take that impending regression into today's start against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers certainly aren't immune to striking out, but they have qualities that could give a pitcher like Gallen some trouble.
Gallen's command has faltered at times this season, as his walk rate is up 3% from last year. Well, the Brewers are one of the most disciplined lineups in baseball, as they have the second-lowest chase rate and the lowest zone-swing rate.
They will make Gallen work to get ahead in the count, and if he's not sharp, he may not have many of those opportunities. His pitch count will rise fast, which will limit his ability to rack up strikeouts.
Gallen has gone under this total in 68% of his 25 starts this year, which tells us that his expectations are too high for this outing.
