We swept the board yesterday, and with the month turning over to September, we're going to ride that momentum. I've got three more starters who are in line for success this Sunday afternoon.
So, without further ado, let's dive into my MLB props for Sunday, September 1.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Props & Picks for Sunday, September 1
- Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)
- Bailey Ober Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-143, BetRivers)
- Zach Eflin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Padres vs Rays Player Props: Lofty Upside for Dylan Cease
We had a dream matchup yesterday as Tarik Skubal took on the Boston Red Sox. Well, our sweet dreams are continuing this Sunday as Dylan Cease will get to take the mound against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Cease has had a tremendous season in San Diego, and the strikeouts have been flowing. In fact, his strikeout rate is higher than it was in 2022 when he was an AL Cy Young Award candidate.
We've established that Cease is one of the game's premier strikeout artists, but the Tampa Bay Rays have quickly become one of the most strikeout-prone teams as well.
The Rays have the lowest zone contact rate in baseball and rank eighth in chase rate. This recipe is why they have held the second-highest strikeout rate against righties over the last month.
Cease should be able to overpower them as they'll swing through strikes and chase out of the zone. The market has high expectations as his listed line total of 7.5 has quite a bit of juice.
However, in this matchup, we can take advantage of his upside by climbing the ladder. You can get him over 8.5 at +150 and over 9.5 at +280. We've seen Cease hit both these marks on multiple occasions, and this is a matchup where he can reach them again.
Blue Jays vs Twins Player Props: Buy Low on Bailey Ober
Next, we are heading to Minnesota, where the Twins are set to hand the ball to one of the more underrated starters in baseball, Bailey Ober. Ober is coming off his worst outing of the season as the Braves tagged him for nine runs in just two innings, but him hitting rock bottom makes this a great bounceback spot.
Ober is due for positive regression as his xERA, SIERA, and FIP are all significantly lower than his season ERA of 4.06. He'll take all of that positive regression and put it up against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that, to their credit, has been producing lately.
However, the Blue Jays have hit their peak offensively, reaching most of their expected numbers, but they still have the third-lowest xWOBACON in baseball.
Lastly, Ober has shown he can be efficient and give length this season. He has pitched at least six innings in 64% of his starts. That gives us implied odds of -178, which is a nice edge on the current price.
Orioles vs Rockies Player Props: Favorable Matchup for Zach Eflin
Our last stop this Sunday will be in Colorado, where Zach Eflin will toe the rubber for the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles acquired Eflin at the deadline to bolster the back of their rotation, and his transition has been smooth.
Eflin is 4-0 in four starts as an Oriole while holding a 2.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. While his metrics don't show it, Eflin has been a consistent source of strikeouts this season, as he's recorded at least five strikeouts in 61% of his 23 starts.
This afternoon, he'll have an excellent opportunity to add to that hit rate as the Colorado Rockies have the highest strikeout rate against righties over the last month and the second-highest rate on the season.
The key for Eflin is getting strikes in the zone. His command is excellent, and the Rockies are going to oblige. Colorado has the third-highest zone swing rate but the fifth-lowest zone contact rate.
Eflin should give us a sweat-free over to round out our card.
