Friday night has the looks of an exciting one in the MLB, with Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals set to take on Elly De La Cruz and the Reds early this evening. I’ll be backing Witt and the Royals offense against Nick Martinez.
There are also several aces getting the ball in Gerrit Cole, Paul Skenes, Corbin Burnes, and Garrett Crochet among others. Cole and Crochet are the other two starting pitchers I will be targeting today. Let’s dive into my MLB player props for Friday.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props for Friday, Aug. 16
- Nick Martinez Under 17.5 Outs (-120, DraftKings)
- Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts + Yankees ML (-115, DraftKings)
- Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-148, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Royals vs Reds Player Props: Sell High on Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed one hit in seven scoreless innings while punching out seven in Milwaukee. It was his also his longest outing of the season and only the second time he went six innings or more. That spans 33 appearances and seven starts, which is more relevant to tonight. Still, Martinez has gone under this line in 71% of his starts this season.
Martinez also pitched five shutout innings in Miami, giving him 12 straight scoreless innings entering tonight's game. It is also fitting both of those starts came on the road, where he has a 1.71 ERA on the road. At home, he has 4.41 ERA and he certainly is not alone. Great American Ballpark is fifth in Park Factor over the last three seasons, according to StatCast.
Martinez needed 94 pitches to get through his last start and that was while pitching nearly flawlessly and only allowing one baserunner. Now facing the Royals, who are 11th in runs scored, let's assume they score at least two to three runs and at least generate enough traffic to make him work. If that happens, this likely is a start that goes five innings instead of six or seven.
Yankees vs Tigers Player Props: Great Matchup for Gerrit Cole
One pitcher that I do expect to pitch six innings is Gerrit Cole, but I prefer his strikeout props instead tonight. Returning midseason from injury, Cole took some time to get himself back on track, but he has started to look more like the reigning AL Cy Young winner of late. In his last seven starts, Cole has recorded six strikeouts or more in five of them while averaging 6.7 strikeouts per game. The two misses came against the Mets and Blue Jays, who rank 18th and 22nd, respectively, in strikeout rate against right-handers.
Cole also has a strong history against the Tigers as he had seven strikeouts in each of his last three starts against the Tigers, including one with nine. This Tigers team is ninth in strikeout rate against right-handers this season. Seven of the last nine starters they have faced have went over their strikeout props and all had at least six strikeouts.
Additionally, Cole has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts. With their ace on the mound, the Yankees are -190 on the moneyline.
That is partially because of Cole, but it also is another bullpen day for the Tigers. Three pitchers who likely will not be used are Bryan Sammons, Kenta Maeda, and Tarik Skubal, who is scheduled to pitch Sunday. With a bullpen that is 20th in ERA, tonight's game favors the Yankees, as they have won Cole's last four starts against Detroit. Provided Cole gets the six Ks, this should cash.
White Sox vs Astros Player Props: Fade Garrett Crochet
After a dominant start to the year, Garrett Crochet has taken a nosedive, as he has surpassed his career-high in innings. To combat that, the White Sox have pitched him in shorter doses as he has not pitched more than four innings in any of his last six starts. He still has 26 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings, but he has not reached six strikeouts in five of his last six starts. He has also failed to reach seven in six of his last eight starts.
Innings restriction or not, Crochet was not going to pitch long in his last start as he allowed seven runs on nine hits (four home runs) in 2 1/3 innings against the Cubs. The Cubs are 20th in runs scored and he has a tougher matchup tonight against the Astros. The Astros are 13th in runs scored and their offense is a bit better at home as they average 4.7 runs per game at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros are also a team that puts the ball in play, as they are fourth in batting and 28th in both overall strikeouts and strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Now, if we are assuming Crochet is limited to four innings or less again, that means he will need 7-of-12 outs recorded to be strikeouts against a team that strikeouts infrequently. I like the odds of that not happening and believe this line is also playable at 5.5 strikeouts. DraftKings is not offering Crochet props tonight, 5.5 is available at +115 on Fanatics as well.
