The number of games remaining in the MLB regular season are dwindling down. We only have a few full slates left to capitalize from, but I plan to make the most of it.
Let's get to my trio of MLB player props for Saturday, September 21.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Saturday, Sept. 21
- Cade Povich Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100, DraftKings)
- Giancarlo Stanton Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115, bet365)
- Max Fried Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Tigers vs Orioles Player Props: Cade Povich Undervalued Today
The Orioles' starting rotation has suffered a bevy of injuries this season, forcing them to thrust guys into big roles. One of those guys has been rookie Cade Povich.
Povich has shown flashes, but he's been hit hard at the big-league level this season. He comes into this start with a 5.74 ERA, and his advanced metrics don't suggest much improvement is coming, as his SIERA is 5.08 and his xFIP is 5.34.
Fortunately for us, he'll carry those numbers into this afternoon's outing against the red-hot Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are rolling right now and have five batters with above-average numbers against lefties on the season, and that doesn't include Riley Green or Spencer Torkelson.
Povich has allowed three or more earned runs in eight of his 14 starts this season, and given everything we discussed, it's much more likely than the coin flip price that he will exceed this total again.
Yankees vs Athletics Player Props: Giancarlo Stanton on the Decline?
Next, we turn our attention to Giancarlo Stanton for a rare hitter prop. At age 34, Stanton still has light tower power and scary bat speed, but we've seen a flip from his career splits this season.
Traditionally, Stanton has mashed left-handed pitching, but this season, he is hitting just .224 with a .147 ISO against lefties. It's clear he's beginning to decline despite his metrics supporting positive regression.
Stanton will also take the majority of his at-bats against JP Sears. Stanton is two for seven against him with a homer and an xBA of .303 in those seven at-bats.
However, I'm skeptical of Stanton getting a good hit from Sears, and it's a big question whether or not he will be able to capitalize on hittable pitches as he ranks in the sixth percentile in whiff rate.
Braves vs Marlins Player Props: Overinflated Strikeout Line for Max Fried
Lastly, we'll target Max Fried, who has begun to put it all together for Atlanta down the stretch. Fried has a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through three starts in September, but he's also struck out 21 batters in 19 innings of work.
That number of strikeouts is not typical for Fried, as his strikeout rate is at the second-lowest mark of his career this year. He no longer profiles as a guy who will rack up strikeouts, as he's become an elite groundball artist.
His total for tonight's outing is overinflated, as he has a great strikeout matchup with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have the seventh-lowest zone contact rate and the highest chase rate in the majors.
Despite those numbers, they are just 15th in strikeout rate against lefties this year. So, Fried will need to overachieve against a lineup that is not a bad as it looks. The under is the side to take here.
