As the MLB regular season continues to wind down, there's still plenty of baseball left to be played. We have another loaded 16-game slate on top for this Sunday, with all 32 teams in action. I'll be focusing on three starting pitchers for my trio of prop picks today, including predictions for Jordan Montgomery, Bryan Woo, and Joey Estes.
Let's break down my MLB player props for Sunday, September 22.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Sunday, Sept. 22
- Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
- Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, BetRivers)
- Joey Estes Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+132, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Player Props: Expect This Trend to Continue for Montgomery
To say that it has not been a good season for Jordan Montgomery in Arizona is putting it lightly. The lefty comes into this outing with a 6.23 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the season.
Montgomery has been unable to put hitters away all season long, and his stark drop-off in strikeout rate has hurt him tremendously. His strikeout rate is down over six percent from last season.
That strikeout rate is set to finish the season in the second percentile. Montgomery's decline this season has been shocking, and he will get no breaks this afternoon against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brewers are a very disciplined lineup. They have the second-lowest chase rate in baseball while also boasting the lowest zone swing rate. They will make Montgomery throw strikes to get ahead, and they won't chase the majority of the time.
Given how poor Montgomery's stuff has been, it's likely we see lots of balls in play. That has been the trend this season, as he's gone under this total in 20 of his 24 starts this season.
Mariners vs Rangers Player Props: Regression Looming for Woo
Bryan Woo has been a tough puzzle to solve for opposing hitters this season. He comes into this start with a 2.85 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the year. He has proven he can get hitters out in a variety of ways by generating soft contact.
However, we have also seen him post consistent strikeout totals, as he's averaged 5.5 strikeouts over his last 10 starts. Although, a closer look shows that he's not quite the strikeout artist that his recent stretch portrays.
Overall, Woo ranks in the 20th percentile in strikeouts per inning while being in the bottom half of the league in swinging strike rate. Today, he'll face a Texas Rangers lineup that excels at putting the ball in play.
The Rangers rank 23rd in strikeout rate against lefties and are seventh in zone contact rate. The key for them avoiding strikeouts against Woo is to not chase about of the zone, and Woo's chase rate is only average.
Given that Woo is due for strikeout regression and has a tough matchup, we should see him stay under this total today.
Yankees vs Athletics Player Props: Buy Low on Estes
Joey Estes has become a reliable source of innings for the Oakland Athletics after being thrust into the rotation earlier this season. He has now made 22 starts this season and has pitched into the sixth inning in 13 of them.
All of his metrics point to him struggling in a start against the New York Yankees, but he's been excellent at limiting the damage this year when teams create traffic on the bases.
It also helps that Estes will be getting a Yankees lineup that is not in peak form right now. The Bronx Bombers clinched a playoff berth earlier this week and have dropped off hitting-wise since then.
The Yankees are 25th in wRC+ and 18th in OBP against righties over the last 15 days. We should see Estes have some success against a Yankees lineup that may be checking out mentally for the remainder of the regular season.
