The weekend is here and that means we have afternoon baseball. Saturday's slate gets started early, and so will the starting pitchers we are targeting on the bump. With little time to waste, let's dive into my three MLB player props for Saturday, August 17.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Saturday, Aug. 17
- Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)
- Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115, bet365)
- Griffin Canning Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Mariners vs Pirates Player Props: The Resurgence of Luis Castillo
While it had begun to look like Luis Castillo would take a step back this season, he has re-emerged as the ace of the Mariners staff in the second half. Castillo has a 2.98 ERA over his last seven starts, and strikeouts have been a big part of his success.
He has sailed over his listed strikeout total in three of his last five starts, and this afternoon, he has another great matchup to capitalize on. Castillo will be up against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who come in with the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
The Pirates rank 21st in zone contact rate and 26th in chase contact rate. That high chase rate will be key for Castillo, who relies on batters chasing pitches out of the zone and is successful in doing so, as his chase rate sits in the 76th percentile.
Overall, Castillo has gone over this total in 60% of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -150. That means we have a great price and a great matchup to start our card.
Yankees vs Tigers Player Props: Good Spot to Fade Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon's saving grace this season has been his ability to rack up strikeouts, but as we discussed earlier in the week when we targeted Bryan Woo, the Detroit Tigers are not the high-strikeout team they appear to be on paper.
The Tigers hold the 10th-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but a closer look shows they do not have the profile of a club of that rank. They rank 16th in zone contact rate and 12th in chase contact rate.
Detroit has also struck out significantly less against lefties this season. They are 18th in strikeout rate against lefties, and we have seen how much damage can be done against Rodon when the ball is put in play against him.
Lastly, the numbers show that this total is much too high for Rodon. He has gone under it in 75% of his 24 starts this season, which equates to implied odds of -300. All signs point to the under here.
Braves vs Angels Player Props: Expect a Short Outing From Griffin Canning
It has not been a great offensive year for the Atlanta Braves. They've dealt with injuries, and their biggest downfall has been their inability to put the ball in play. However, tonight, we should get to see the power in this lineup as they face Griffin Canning.
Canning also hasn't had the best of seasons, entering this outing with a 5.11 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Canning is not a guy who will generate many swings and misses, as his strikeout rate sits in the 10th percentile.
This high amount of contact has led to a lot of damage by opposing lineups, and we should see that again in this matchup. We have only seen Canning complete six innings of work in 38% of his 24 starts this season.
That gives the under implied odds of -162, which is a massive edge considering the current market price.
