Our luck turned downward yesterday as we finished the weekend 3-3, but today's Major League Baseball slate allows us to get back on track. I've found three starting pitchers who are going to help us do just that.
So, with that said, let's dive into my MLB player props for Monday, August 19.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Monday, Aug. 19
- Luis Ortiz Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+122, FanDuel)
- Yusei Kikuchi Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115, bet365)
- Gavin Stone Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-116, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets, and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Pirates vs Rangers Player Props: Tough Draw for Luis Ortiz
The Pittsburgh Pirates will send 25-year-old right-hander Luis Ortiz to the mound tonight. Ortiz has electric stuff but has yet to translate into many strikeouts.
Ortiz has just 71 punchouts in 95 innings of work this season. Tonight, he'll face a Rangers club that does not strike out very often.
The Rangers are 25th in strikeout rate against righties this season, and a closer look shows that they should see the ball well against Ortiz. They rank sixth in zone contact rate but are 20th in chase contact rate.
However, Ortiz's chase rate and called strike whiff rate each rank in the 19th percentile. So, with the Rangers seeing the ball well in the zone and not having to worry about chasing out of the zone, the strikeout should be kept to a minimum.
Red Sox vs Astros Player Props: Dream Matchup for Yusei Kikuchi?
On paper, this looks like a dream matchup for Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi gets to face the Boston Red Sox, who hold the highest strikeout rate in the majors against left-handed pitching on the season.
Additionally, Kikuchi has proven to be a consistent source of strikeouts as all his swinging strike rates and called strike whiff rates are all above average. However, all of this has made his strikeout total tonight a bit too high.
Kikuchi has gone under this total in 72% of his starts this season. That hit rate gives us a significant edge on the current market price. On top of that, the Red Sox have cut down on the strikeouts lately.
Boston ranks 16th in strikeout rate against lefties over the last 30 days. Those last two points are hammered home by our Action Labs projection.
Kikuchi is projected for just 6.1 strikeouts, which makes this under one of the strongest plays on the board.
Mariners vs Dodgers Player Props: Gavin Stone Strikeout Total is Inflated
Our last stop on the fade train is in Chavez Ravine, where Gavin Stone will take the mound against the Seattle Mariners. We have another matchup where we are fading a starter against a team with a high strikeout rate.
In fact, the Mariners have the highest team strikeout rate in baseball against righties, but the matchup has raised Stone's total too high. This total will be decided by the Mariners' discipline in not chasing out of the zone.
Stone's strikeout rate is in the 19th percentile, but his chase rate is in the 83rd percentile. However, the Mariners can counteract that by not chasing, which they actually don't do that often for a team that strikes out as much as they do.
The Mariners have the fourth-lowest chase rate in baseball. If they can make Stone throw strikes, they should be able to limit the strikeouts, as Stone has not been great at finishing off hitters.
Stone has gone under this total in 68% of his 22 starts this season. That hit rate puts the odds in our favor.
