For my Saturday MLB player props, I'll be looking into hits allowed and strikeout plays for three starting pitchers: Miles Mikolas, Michael Lorenzen and Bryan Woo.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Saturday, April 12.
MLB Prop Picks — Saturday, April 12
- Miles Mikolas Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-115, DraftKings)
- Michael Lorenzen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
- Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110, bet365)
Phillies vs Cardinals Player Props: Fade the Struggling Mikolas
We get things started this afternoon in St. Louis, where Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas is in for a challenge. Mikolas has been battered through his first two starts of the year as he comes in with an 11.25 ERA after allowing eight earned runs on nine hits in his last start against the Boston Red Sox.
The issue for Mikolas is that he does not miss any bats. So far, he ranks in the first percentile in whiff rate and the sixth in strikeout rate. All that contact, hard or not, has led to surrendering hits.
This is not only the case of his last start but for half his outings last season, where he averaged six hits allowed per outing. Today, he'll face a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that has hit righties well and not struck out against them very often.
Philly is a great match to put another crooked number in the hit column against Mikolas.
Royals vs Guardians Player Props: Guardians Don't Whiff Often
The substantial impending regression from last year has yet to fully hit Kansas City Royals starter Michael Lorenzen, but we did take a step back in the strikeout column against the Twins in his last outing.
Surprisingly, his CSW was only down 1% from his seven-strikeout performance against Milwaukee, but he could not finish off Minnesota's hitters. If he can't set down a swing-happy Minnesota lineup, then the Cleveland Guardians are a tough assignment.
The Guardians have been one of the toughest lineups to generate strikeouts against over the last two seasons, as they are disciplined and have a high zone contact rate.
For Lorenzen, a starter with a strikeout rate in the 16th percentile last season, generating strikeouts is going to be a rarity. Take this bet as he went under this total 67% of the time in 2024, including both starts against the Guardians.
Rangers vs Mariners Player Props: Back Woo Against Texas
Bryan Woo was quietly one of the better pitchers in baseball last season, as he pitched to a 2.89 ERA and was excellent at generating soft contact. Those trends have carried over to 2025, and tonight, he faces a Texas Rangers lineup that has been ice-cold against right-handed pitching.
Dating back to last season, over their last 30 games, the Rangers are 30th in batting average against righties and 26th in hard-hit rate. Woo is the exact opposite matchup this Rangers lineup would want, as he had a hard-hit rate in the 94th percentile last year and a BABIP against in the 93rd percentile.
That consistent soft contact allowed him to stay under this hits total in 59% of his starts last season. Seeing the Rangers and Woo are trending in opposite directions, don't expect much traffic on the bases for Texas tonight.
