We have just two days remaining in the MLB regular season. However, the action is far from finished, as many teams still have something to play for. Let's finish the season strong with the top MLB player props for Saturday, Sept. 28.
MLB Player Props for Saturday
- Shane Baz Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125, DraftKings)
- Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, bet365)
- Mookie Betts Over 2.5 Total Bases (+130, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Rays vs. Red Sox Player Props:
Shane Baz has long been touted as the next great pitching prospect for the Tampa Bay Rays. Well, now that he's finally stayed healthy in 2024, we've seen his potential at the big-league level.
Overall, Baz has excellent stuff and has shown that he can strike hitters out consistently. He does much of that by pounding the zone and getting ahead of hitters.
He'll have a great opportunity to do just that against the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox come into this matchup scuffling as they rank last in wRC+ and 27th in OBP against righties over the last month.
In addition to their struggles, Boston also has the third-lowest zone contact rate in baseball. That will allow Baz to pitch to his strengths and succeed, just like he did two weeks ago against this same lineup.
Baz has surrendered less than 5.5 hits in eight of his 13 starts, which included each of his last five outings. So, back Baz against a reeling Red Sox lineup.
Pick: Shane Baz Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
Royals vs. Braves Player Props:
The Royals clinched a playoff spot last night, helped by the Minnesota Twins' collapse. However, the Atlanta Braves will enter this game with plenty to play for, as they are one of the three teams tied for the final two NL Wild Card spots.
Despite clinching yesterday, we should not expect the Royals to take their foot off the gas, and Seth Lugo will lead the way on the mound. Lugo's career year as a starter is a big reason for the Royals' success, and we should see him turn in another quality outing tonight.
While Lugo is not a strikeout pitcher, the Braves are a strikeout-prone lineup as they hold the fourth-lowest zone contact rate and the eighth-lowest chase contact rate.
Atlanta also does not profile for much contact against a pitcher like Lugo, as just four hitters on its roster have a strikeout rate below 21 percent against Lugo's pitch arsenal.
We've seen consistency and upside from Lugo in the strikeout department this season, averaging 5.6 strikeouts per start and racking up as many as 12 in a single outing.
Trust him to get the job done in a great matchup.
Pick: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Dodgers vs. Rockies Player Props:
There are a lot of runs expected today in Colorado and one man who should be in the middle of the action is Mookie Betts. Betts has slowly begun to regain his early-season form, and he gets to take his first few at-bats against a familiar foe.
Betts will step in against Antonio Antonio Senzatela. He has had Senzatela's number in their 19 meetings, as he's hitting .471 off him with three extra-base hits. Not only does Betts have a good history against Senzatela in particular, but he's primed to succeed against his arsenal of pitches.
This season, Betts has a combined .374 wOBA and just an 11.2 percent strikeout rate against all the pitches in Senzatela's arsenal. This is a smash spot for Betts in Coors Field.
Taking his over bases is the conservative approach, as he's got a great chance of clearing this total by sending one into the cheap seats.
Pick:Mookie Betts Over 2.5 Total Bases (+130)
