All eyes may be on the gridiron today, but if you're looking to increase your bankroll, the MLB diamond has everything you need. I've found three starting pitchers to target in the player prop market.
So, let's dive into my MLB player props and picks for Tarik Skubal, Gavin Stone and Frankie Montas on Saturday, August 31.
MLB Player Props & Picks for Saturday (8-31)
- Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+135, DraftKings)
- Frankie Montas Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-110, bet365)
- Gavin Stone Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Red Sox vs Tigers Player Props: Ladder Tarik Skubal?
This is the spot we dream about as pitcher prop bettors. Tarik Skubal will take the mound tonight against the Boston Red Sox. We know how lights-out Skubal has been this year, as he's the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award.
A big part of his dominance this year has come from overwhelming hitters and racking up strikeouts. Skubal's strikeout rate is in the 92nd percentile, and tonight, he'll face a Red Sox lineup that has the highest team strikeout rate against lefties in baseball.
While the matchup is tremendous, we're also getting a great price here. This total of 7.5 is an alternate line on DraftKings and is listed as 8+ as they have overjuiced his listed total of 6.5.
DraftKings is giving us +135 on a total that Skubal has gone over 46 percent of the time this year. That means it should be priced closer to +117.
Skubal should start our card off with a bang, but don't be afraid to ladder him up. For full disclosure, I've laddered him up to 10+ strikeouts, which is +425 on bet365.
Brewers vs Reds Player Props: Bad Spot for Frankie Montas
The Cincinnati Reds made a rare interdivisional trade this past July, and it may work in their favor tonight. They will get to face the man they traded, Frankie Montas.
It's fair to say that Cincinnati should have a pretty good scouting report on Montas, as he made 19 starts for them this season. Additionally, this game will be taking place at Great American Ballpark, a much more hitter-friendly environment than American Family Field.
Montas allowed three or more earned runs in five of his ten starts as Red at home. He'll come into this matchup having gone over this total in three of his five starts as a Brewer and is due for some regression.
Overall, Montas has gone over this total in 58 percent of his starts, which gives us implied odds of -138. That's a big price edge that will be compounded by all the other factors mentioned.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Player Props: Fade Gavin Stone?
Gavin Stone will take the ball tonight for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he is looking to ride the momentum he's built over his last two outings. Stone has been excellent as he tossed 14 innings, allowed one run on five hits, and has struck out 17 the last two times he's toed the rubber.
He has also done this with great efficiency, averaging just 85 pitches in both of those outings. However, multiple metrics are pointing toward him regressing, and his low pitch count average of just 86 per start is a sign of him leaving this start early.
Not to mention, Stone has a tough matchup ahead of him tonight. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been crushing right-handed pitching this season, and they are the No. 1 team in wRC+ and OBP over the last month.
We've only seen Stone complete six innings of work in half his starts, and with his last two being outliers, we should see some regression hit here.
