There are several intriguing games on Thursday, but chief among them is Astros vs Orioles in a matchup of AL pennant contenders in Baltimore. It will also feature an All-Star matchup when Yordan Alvarez steps in the batter’s box against Corbin Burnes. I’ll be backing Alvarez in that battle.
I'll also be banking on pitchers Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs.
Let’s dive into Thursday’s MLB player props.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props (Thursday, Aug. 22)
- Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits +Runs + Runs Batted In (-125, BetMGM)
- Luis Severino Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Rays vs Athletics Player Props: Whiffin' Springs
Last season, Jeffrey Springs got off to a dominant start, posting a 0.56 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 16 innings across three starts, including seven strikeouts against the Athletics. Unfortunately, his season came to an early end after he underwent Tommy John surgery.
Springs is still shaking off rust and returning to form this year. After a lengthy rehab assignment, he has made four starts back in the MLB. After three strikeouts in each of his first two starts, he has eight and seven strikeouts in his last two outings. Those came in difficult matchups against the Orioles and Diamondbacks.
He might find today's matchup in Oakland a little easier.
The Athletics boast the ninth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. On Sunday, Blake Snell went over a high 8.5 strikeouts line with 10 against the hapless A's bats. You wouldn't classify Springs as the same caliber strikeout artist as Snell, but he has averaged over a strikeout per inning for his career. That average may be handy today, as he likely only has five innings to get this line.
Springs has thrown between 76 and 87 pitches in his four starts this season, not far from where he has typically operated as a starter. If he is efficient, he may be able to work into the sixth inning, which would give him 18 potential outs.
Even if he only goes five innings again, I like his chances of getting six strikeouts in this matchup. You can also back him for up to eight strikeouts at +340 on FanDuel.
Astros vs Orioles Player Props: Bet On This Slugger
With two series against the Rays, two against the Red Sox, and another against the Orioles this weekend, the Astros may as well be an honorary member of the AL East this month.
The Astros will face Orioles ace Corbin Burnes today, which is usually not good news for most teams. However, Burnes has a 9.00 ERA in 15 innings this month.
One Astros hitter who will be excited to face Burnes is Yordan Alvarez.
The Astros' slugger is 2-for-5 with two home runs, three RBIs, and a walk lifetime against Burnes. 19 of his 25 home runs have come against righties, and he's tagged on 46 RBIs with a .913 OPS against the side. He is also hitting .356 on the road this season.
Burnes has allowed five home runs in six starts since the All-Star break and 18 on the year.
Alvarez is +450 on BetMGM to hit a home run tonight. However, more likely is Alvarez simply getting on base. He has a hit in seven of his last 10 games, with five multi-hit games in that stretch. In that span, Alvarez scored seven runs and driven in seven runs, which has helped him cash this prop in six of his past 10 games, where he's averaged 2.7 hits + runs + runs batted in per game.
He has a matchup to continue that trend, but he could also score a run if he draws a walk and is driven in.
Mets vs Padres Player Props: Sevvy On A Tear
Luis Severino enters this start with five strikeouts in five of his past six starts. That includes eight apiece in his last two starts against the Mariners and Marlins.
Those were great matchups for him, but Severino will face a challenge tonight in San Diego. The Padres boast the lowest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
That said, I think Severino is undervalued because of San Diego's dominance.
Even in an abysmal final season with the Yankees, Severino had five strikeouts against the Padres. Two hitters he has dominated on the Padres are Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. The two are a combined 7-for-46 (.152) with 18 strikeouts against Severino.
In an ideal world, Severino fans both of them twice, and we cash this line by the fourth inning, but betting is rarely that simple. Still, Severino has not faced the majority of the Padres' lineup, which will give him an advantage the first time through the lineup.
Additionally, Severino has recorded four strikeouts in 18 of 24 (75%) starts this season. He has also worked five innings in nine of his past 10 starts and six innings in six.
Severino will have a strong chance of hitting this line in five innings or more, and I also might bet him to rip off six or more strikeouts at +360 on FanDuel.
