For my Opening Day MLB player props, I'll be looking into Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Steele, and Logan Gilbert
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Opening Day.
MLB Props & Picks for Thursday, March 27
- Yusei Kikuchi over 6.5 strikeouts (+108, FanDuel)
- Justin Steele under 15.5 outs recorded (- 115, DraftKings)
- Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts (+130, bet365)
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Player Props: Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 Strikeouts
The theme for early season pitching props is going to be taking unders, as many pitchers are still using their first few starts to build up their pitch count and aren't given the length to hit their strikeout props. However, this first one is an exception, as Yusei Kikuchi put in work this spring.
Now a member of the Angels, Kikuchi made three Spring Training starts and built up to 88 pitches in his final outing. That pitch count is good enough to get him into the fifth, which means his strikeout upside is high against a bad Chicago White Sox lineup.
This White Sox lineup somehow got worse this offseason after they struggled mightily against lefties last year, ranking 11th in team strikeout rate and 29th in batting average against lefties. On the other hand, Kikuchi is an elite strikeout pitcher when he's on, he ranked in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate last season.
The Angels' new ace is the guy to back today.
Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop: Justin Steele Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Justin Steele takes the mound tonight for the Chicago Cubs, and his situation is unique as this will be his second start of the year. However, things did not go great in Tokyo as he went just four innings and threw 67 pitches.
Steele's length is in question tonight, as his pitch count is not indicative of a guy who will pitch into the sixth inning. On top of that, he has a tough matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks were the best lineup in baseball against left-handed pitching last season, ranking one or two in every major category. While there's been a bit of turnover, this Arizona lineup should give Steele plenty of trouble and force him to hit the showers early once again.
Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Player Prop: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts
The last starting pitcher to target on Opening Day is Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners. Gilbert is coming off a dominant season where he efficiently ate up innings and racked up strikeouts, ranking in the 87th percentile.
However, I'm fading him in his first start of the season against the Athletics. Gilbert only built up to 79 pitches in his final Spring Training start, which means he's likely capped at around six innings of work.
That means he will have to have an above-average performance on a shorter leash to hit this over. Yes, he has a great matchup against the Athletics, who ranked 28th in strikeout rate against righties last season, but his window to over is too small for a guy who only averages a strikeout per inning in his first start of the season.
Capitalize on the plus-money value by fading Gilbert tonight.
