MLB Player Props & Picks: Make These 3 Bets on Friday
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Feltner (Rockies)
Friday's slate is a fresh start for many teams across the big league circuit as new series are set to begin.
For us, it's an opportunity to start the weekend off right.
So, with that said, so let's examine three MLB player props for Friday, June 14, featuring bets for Matt Waldron, Freddy Peralta and Ryan Feltner.
MLB Player Props: Friday, June 14
- Matt Waldron Over 1.5 Walks (+150, bet365)
- Freddy Peralta Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
- Ryan Feltner Over 15.5 Outs (+110, BetMGM)
Waldron takes the mound for the Padres tonight, and while his dancing knuckleball will captivate all who watch, we'll be taking advantage of a big misprice in his walk prop.
While Waldron's knuckleball has been a mystery to many opposing hitters, it's also an enigma to him.
Traditionally, the pitch is tough to control, as there are few directions once it leaves the pitcher's hand. So, batters have been disciplined, and that's led to Waldron surrendering his fair share of walks this season.
He's walked at least two batters in 54% of his starts this season and 52% of his 21 big league starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -108, yet the odds we're getting from bet365 imply a hit rate of 40.
Take the value tonight and watch the knuckler dance out of the zone.
Pick: Matt Waldron Over 1.5 Walks (+150)
Peralta has assumed the ace spot in the rotation for the Milwaukee Brewers this season and has run with it. He comes into this matchup with a 3.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
He also boasts a 31.6% strikeout rate, which is the second-highest mark of his career.
A deeper look shows that we should fade him tonight, though.
Everything on paper looks great for Peralta; he's a high-strikeout pitcher going against a lineup that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against righties. The issue is his line, which is priced closer to his ceiling.
Peralta has gone under this total in 71% of his starts over the last three seasons. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -245, which means that he'll stay under again tonight.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Don't let the 5.74 ERA and 1.48 WHIP fool you; Ryan Feltner has been solid for the Colorado Rockies this season. His xERA is 3.69, which is over two runs lower than his actual ERA.
That means he's due for significant positive regression, which should begin tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates are one of the weaker lineups in baseball against righties, as they rank 28th in wRC+ and OBP.
Feltner should be able to keep the traffic to a minimum and work into the sixth inning, which he's done in 54% of his 13 starts this year.
Back Feltner to have a quality outing as things will turn around for him tonight.
Pick: Ryan Feltner Over 15.5 Outs (+110)
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