The weekend is almost here, and that's great news for us as we've gone 14-4 over the past two weekends. I've got three starters who are going to get us off to a good start this Friday.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Friday, June 21.
MLB Player Props for Friday, June 21
- Shota Imanaga under 6.5 strikeouts (-150, DraftKings)
- Jack Flaherty over 6.5 strikeouts (+107, BetRivers)
- Carlos Rodon under 7.5 strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs has been dominant in his first 13 big league starts. He comes in with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, averaging over a strikeout per inning.
However, he is due for significant regression. His xERA is much higher than his actual ERA, at 3.05. His success has stemmed from his high strikeout rate, but when the ball has been put in play off him, it's been hard and in the air.
This afternoon, he's going to face a New York Mets lineup that is swinging the bat well lately and doesn't strike out often. The Mets are 25th in strikeout rate against lefties and are sixth in wRC+.
So, they are the lineup that begins the impending regression from Imanaga. So, put his short-term success aside and fade him this afternoon.
We go from one dominant starter to another in Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has revitalized his career in Detroit and looks better than ever.
A massive part of his success has been generating strikeouts, and he's doing so at the best rate of his career. He ranks in the 89th percentile in swinging strike rate and the 94th percentile in CSW.
Tonight, he takes on a Chicago White Sox lineup that has a propensity to swing and miss. The White Sox are 12th in strikeout rate against righties but have upped that lately as they are fifth over their last 30 games.
We've seen Flaherty go over this number in 62 percent of games this season, and with a great matchup ahead of him, he should add another tally in that column tonight.
Lastly, we head to the Bronx, where Carlos Rodon of the Yankees is set to take the mound against the Atlanta Braves. Rodon has finally begun to turn back the clock a bit in pinstripes as we've seen him succeed this season.
However, he's being vastly overrated against a Braves lineup that is also beginning to find its stride. We know the Braves are not what they were last season, but they are still dangerous against lefties, as they rank 11th in wRC+.
Additionally, Rodon has not shown us the strikeout upside to warrant his line being this high. He has only surpassed this number twice in fifteen starts, which gives the under implied odds of -669.
Fade Rodon, as he's being given way too much credit tonight.
