Last night, Bobby Witt Jr. helped us have a profitable night with a pair of late hits, including a home run.
Tonight, I’m going back to the Motor City with a pair of aces — Cole Ragans and Tarik Skubal — getting the ball for game two of the four-game set.
Two more pitchers I’ll be backing are Spencer Schwellenbach and Tyler Phillips.
MLB Player Props: Friday, August 2
- Cole Ragans/Tarik Skubal 6 Strikeouts Parlay (-119, FanDuel)
- Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
- Tyler Phillips Over 17.5 Outs (-113, DraftKings)
Since being acquired by the Royals last season, Ragans has 251 strikeouts in 200 innings.
He also has enjoyed a ton of success against the Tigers. He punched out eight at Comerica Park last September and recorded 12 against Detroit at home in May.
He could be in for another big night as the Tigers are fourth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the last 15 days.
The Tigers' offense has struggled of late (five runs in their last four days) with All-Star Riley Greene on the IL. Seth Lugo went eight innings against the Tigers last night, and Ragans went six innings or more in each of his last two starts against the Tigers.
Ragans has had six strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts and has the better matchup on paper tonight, with his Royals ranking 29th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season.
However, Skubal has had six strikeouts in each of his last three starts against the Royals, including one with eight in Detroit. Skubal is very comfortable on his mound, as he's 7-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 65 1/3 innings. He's fanned six in 14 of his last 15 home starts and nine of his last 10 starts overall.
This matchup has the potential for a pitcher's duel. Ragans and Skubal should both hit six strikeouts if they go six innings or more.
You can also parlay them for eight strikeouts apiece at +414 on FanDuel.
Pick: Cole Ragans/Tarik Skubal 6 Strikeouts Parlay (-119)
Another pitcher who's grown fond of pitching at home is Schwellenbach. The young rookie right-hander has six strikeouts in each of his last four home starts, including eight against the Cardinals.
However, his season high actually came on the road, as he struck out 11 against the Mets last Saturday.
Overall, Schwellenbach has hit this line in six of his last seven starts. The lone miss came against the Padres, who are the most difficult to strike out in baseball.
Schwellenbach should be able to continue his success against the Marlins tonight. Miami is eighth in strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 15 days. However, in a rough season, it also traded nine players at the trade deadline to build for the future.
With the Marlins' front office throwing in the towel on this season, tonight's projected lineup has six players with a 23.3% strikeout rate or higher. Schwellenbach is in the 73rd percentile with a 25.5% strikeout rate and the 97th percentile with a 35.6% chase rate.
If Schwellenbach works six innings tonight — like he has in six of his last eight starts — he'll have a strong opportunity to record six strikeouts again — like his teammate Charlie Morton did last night.
You can also back him for up to nine strikeouts at +560 on FanDuel.
Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
In just his third career start, Phillips recorded his first career shutout last Saturday against the Guardians. It was the also third straight start that he went six innings or more.
Phillips has also been very effective, as he has a 1.80 ERA and hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts.
The Phillies got the benefit of an off day yesterday, which their bullpen certainly needed after a taxing series against the Yankees. However, manager Rob Thomson still could use a lengthy start from Phillips tonight.
Against the Yankees, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez all fell short of six innings. Additionally, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker are on the IL and tomorrow could be a bullpen-heavy day with Kolby Allard projected to start.
The Mariners' batters will have a say in how that plays out, but I like this spot for Phillips, especially considering Seattle's splits. On its six-game road trip, Seattle averaged 6.1 runs per game, continuing its trend of being better on the road offensively.
On the road, Seattle averages 4.4 runs per game compared to 3.3 runs at T-Mobile Park. While this is Seattle's first home game with Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, it remains without Julio Rodriguez.
Still, I would expect Phillips' scoreless streak to end tonight at some point. However, a quality start of six innings and three earned runs allowed would still get him to 18 outs.
