For many, the weekend rolls on this Friday following the holiday, and we plan to do the same in the player prop market. I've found three starters who are going to make our work week end with a bang.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Friday, July 5 — featuring picks for Sonny Gray, Nestor Cortes, and Hogan Harris.
MLB Player Props: Wednesday, July 5
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, DraftKings)
- Nestor Cortes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135, bet365)
- Hogan Harris under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130, FanDuel)
Sonny Gray has been tremendous for the St. Louis Cardinals this season. The 34-year-old enters this start with a 2.98 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 15 starts.
We've seen a significant jump in strikeouts from Gray this year, as his strikeout rate is up seven percent from last season. His 31.3% strikeout rate sits in the 93rd percentile and will pose a threat to any lineup, including the Washington Nationals lineup.
The Nats have done an excellent job of putting the ball in play this season, as they rank 22nd in strikeout rate against righties. However, the matchup has weighed down Gray's strikeout total, as it sits at just 5.5.
Gray has exceeded this total in 80 percent of his starts this season and is capable of racking up strikeouts in tough matchups. We are even getting this over at plus money, so it's great value, considering his implied odds are heavily in our favor.
On Wednesday, we backed the Red Sox by fading Trevor Rogers. While Rogers performed a miracle to go over his strikeout total against Boston, we won't see another one tonight with Nestor Cortes on the mound against Boston.
The Red Sox come into this rivalry series with the highest team strikeout rate against lefties in the majors. However, they've also been hitting lefties well lately, as they rank fourth in wRC+ against them over their last 30 games.
So, this is a tougher matchup than it would appear to be on paper for Nestor Cortes, who may also be in line for some regression as his xFIP is 0.37 higher than his FIP entering this outing.
All of this leads to Cortes' strikeout total, which has been overinflated by the matchup to 6.5. Cortes has gone under this number in 14 of his 18 starts this season.
With his CSW in the bottom quarter of the league and an 88% hit rate working against him, taking Cortes to stay under tonight is a strong play.
Hogan Harris of the Oakland Athletics has a tall order ahead of him tonight as he'll be up against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles come into this matchup fourth in the majors in wRC+ and should have their eyes wide against Harris.
Harris may have a 3.81 ERA, but that is going to change quickly tonight as he's due for significant regression. His xERA is over two full runs higher than his actual ERA, which is 5.52.
That stems from allowing a lot of hard contact and not missing many bats overall. Harris ranks in the 18th percentile in strikeouts per inning and the 15th percentile in swinging strike rate.
His inability to miss bats has led him to go under 4.5 strikeouts in four of his six starts. With massive regression coming against a dangerous lineup, we may not see Harris for long in this one, and that will cap his chances of exceeding this total.
