For my Friday MLB player props, I'll be looking into outs recorded and strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers: Mitch Keller, Seth Lugo and Gavin Williams.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for April 4, 2025.
MLB Prop Picks — Friday, April 4
- Mitch Keller Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
- Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (- 110, DraftKings)
- Gavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+120, bet365)
Yankees vs Pirates Player Props: Keller Against the Torpedoes
The New York Yankees and their torpedo bat-filled lineup are finally hitting the road and will be put to the test this afternoon in Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller is set to take the ball for the Pirates, and he's been overlooked in a rotation headlined by Paul Skenes.
Keller was once the ace of this staff, and while he's had some ups and downs over the past few seasons, he has been a consistent source of innings. He pitched into the sixth inning in 78% of his starts last season and ended the year due for positive regression.
In his 2025 debut, Keller delivered six solid innings against the Marlins, so there are no pitch count concerns. While the Yankees are a big step up in competition, we have yet to see what the Bronx Bombers look like away from their hitter-friendly home park.
Back Keller to produce quick outs against a Yankees lineup facing a tough turnaround.
Orioles vs Royals Player Props: Nice Matchup for Lugo
We are targeting Baltimore again after we found a ton of success there yesterday. Tanner Houck cashed the over for us at 4.5 strikeouts, and now Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals has the same total to surpass.
However, Lugo is even more enticing. He records strikeouts at a much higher rate than Houck and showed last season that he could consistently work into the seventh inning.
The Orioles have whiffed at a higher rate against righties to start the campaign and rank 17th in team strikeout rate, 2% higher than last season.
Lugo's length gives him a big window to surpass this number, so back him to rack up the strikeouts tonight.
Guardians vs Angels Player Props: Look for Williams To Dominate
Lastly, we turn our attention to one of the most highky touted bounce-back candidates, Gavin Williams. While injuries have plagued his young career, Williams has proven to be electric when healthy.
In 17 starts last season, Williams held a strikeout rate in the 64th percentile and had a massive discrepancy between his ERA and his FIP. That points to him pitching much better than his results, and we should see that positive regression come to fruition against a weak Los Angeles Angels lineup.
The Angels have gotten off to a horrid start against right-handed pitching, hitting just .189 and holding a 60.1 wRC+. Williams should carve through this lineup if he's able to get ahead.
Additionally, he's in line to stretch out his pitch count after going five innings on just 74 pitches in his first start this season. Look for Williams to dominate as he aims for a quality start.
