Westgate surprised me on Sunday by not only posting win totals and division odds, but season-long player props.
Over the next month, we'll surely see some more books start posting these props and others (batting averages, RBI, pitcher strikeouts, etc.), but I can't just let these go by without giving some initial thoughts.
Home Run Totals
First things first: season-long player props have a tendency to go under far more often than over. I'll end up taking a handful of overs, but my portfolio will be heavily inundated with unders. That goes for home run props and everything else.
Early totals that stick out to me:
- Eugenio Suarez Under 30.5
- Christian Yelich Under 28.5
- Jesus Aguilar Under 27.5
- Robinson Cano Over 18.5
Keep an eye out for more picks and analysis in the coming weeks.
Hit Totals
Hit total over/unders aren't really my cup of tea. In fact, I actually bet zero of them last year. Wish I had more insight for you here, but the selection of players is much less than the home run list and is comprised of hitters expected to bat in the 1-3 spot in the lineup.
If you're wondering why Mike Trout is so low on the list, remember that he walks all the time.
He's topped 154.5 in five of his seven seasons, but it's not a slam dunk on the over. If he misses a little bit of time with an injury, he's going to have trouble hitting that number with walks accounting for ~20% of his plate appearances.
Pitcher Win Totals
Win totals for pitchers are perhaps the flukiest of all baseball statistics. Just ask Jacob deGrom.
You can do everything in your power to keep your team in the game, but get a loss or no decision. On the other hand, your offense can have your back and get you wins when you shouldn't really deserve them.
That's how the pitcher with the best ERA (deGrom, 1.70) and the pitcher with the worst ERA (Lucas Giolito, 6.13) both ended up with 10 wins last season.
Here are my off-the-top-of-my-head value picks, mostly based on injury risk or luck coming back to earth:
- Chris Sale under 15.5
- Blake Snell under 14.5
- Clayton Kershaw under 13.5
- Rich Hill under 10.5
Once the entire market has its full list of offerings available, I will come out with more detailed analysis of all my favorite player props and futures.
