For MLB player props on Saturday, April 6, I'm targeting Cubs left-hander Jordan Wicks as he takes on the vaunted Dodgers at Wrigley Field.
Entering Saturday's MLB slate, I'm 10-2 (+7.49u) on strikeout prop picks for the season.
MLB Player Props: Jordan Wicks Expert Strikeout Pick
Jordan Wicks
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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Wicks is a fascinating pitcher to project. While he doesn’t necessarily have electric stuff and relies on a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, sinker — he offers sneaky strikeout upside.
His ability to locate and mix his pitches in a way that throws off a hitters' timing is why he was able to generate a 20% swinging-strike rate in his opening start against the Rangers. A 20% swinging-strike rate is elite and I’m not sure he can sustain that, but it does make me want to invest in him right now.
Wicks was only able to generate an 8% called-strike rate, which isn’t really a concern and is something that we can bank on regressing toward the league average, which means he could be due for some positive K% regression.
The left-hander tends to pitch around the edges at a high rate; the Dodgers are a very patient team that swings at the ninth-lowest rate (on the young season). That means it’s likely the home-plate umpire will have a pretty big impact on this market.
Mike Estabrook will be calling balls and strikes, which could give a pitcher like Wicks a significant boost. Estabrook tends to have a bigger strike zone than most umps and gave us this beauty of a game last year:
Umpire: Mike Estabrook
Final: Giants 0, Dodgers 7#SFGiants // #HereToPlay#SFvsLAD // #LADvsSFMore stats for this game 👇https://t.co/9NUfPnI2mWpic.twitter.com/CqFdN9m7Gi
— Umpire Scorecards (@UmpScorecards) September 24, 2023
I’m projecting Wicks closer to -150 to go over 4.5 strikeouts, and I think there is even more hidden value based on the combination of Wicks, the Dodgers' approach and an ump with a huge strikezone.
