For my MLB player props on Tuesday, September 10, I'll be betting on a number of hitters that include: Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Ezequiel Tovar and Nick Castellanos.
Let's dive into my MLB player props.
MLB Player Props for Tuesday 9/10
- Ezequiel Tovar/Nick Castellanos One Strikeout Parlay (-111, DraftKings)
- Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, DraftKings)
- Tommy Pham to Record Two Total Bases (+125, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Rockies vs Tigers & Rays vs Phillies Player Props: Tovar-Castellanos Strikeout Parlay
Ezequiel Tovar/Nick Castellanos One Strikeout Parlay (-111)
Both Games at 6:40 p.m. ET
After posting 2.5 WAR as a rookie, Tovar has built on last year's success with 23 home runs, a .758 OPS and 3.3 WAR this season.
However, there's still a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. Tovar struck out 166 times in 153 games last season and he's at 178 strikeouts in 139 games this year. Tovar has struck out in 111-of-139 (80%) games this season and 17 of his last 20.
Part of his increase in strikeouts in 2024 comes from batting higher in the Rockies' lineup. He already has one more plate appearance this season, despite playing 14 less games compared to last season.
Tonight, Tovar will face Tigers rookie Keider Montero, who has 60 strikeouts in 74 innings this season. While he's not the biggest strikeout pitcher, Tovar has 117 strikeouts in 414 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season.
Batting first or second in the Rockies' order — like he usually does — will give Tovar three at-bats against Montero and possibly five overall.
Meanwhile, Castellanos needs one home run for his sixth career 20-homer campaign, but he hasn't hit one in his last 10 games. In that span, he's just 6-for-35 (.171) with one extra-base hit. Castellanos has struck out once in each of his past 10 games.
Tonight, he'll face Rays right-hander Taj Bradley for the first time. The young right-hander has struggled of late, but he still has 131 strikeouts in 116 innings this season, including 10 in seven innings in his last start against the Twins.
Castellanos has 92 strikeouts in 439 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
Tovar is often listed at 1.5 strikeouts, although he only hits that mark 35% of the time. Tonight, we only need one strikeout from him, and combined with Castellanos, we have a high hit rate for this combo.
Pick: Ezequiel Tovar/Nick Castellanos One Strikeout Parlay (-111)
Braves vs Nationals Player Props: Matchup Favors Ozuna
Ozuna has 37 homers this season and ranks fifth in the MLB. His last home run came on August 20 against the Phillies, but that hasn't stopped him from reaching base.
Ozuna has a hit in 16 of his last 20 games, and I expect that trend to continue tonight considering his matchup.
Tonight, Ozuna gets MacKenzie Gore, who he's 6-for-15 (.400) with a home run and four runs batted in against. Gore has allowed just four earned runs in 18 innings over his last three starts and took a perfect game into the sixth inning in Miami last week.
However, he still has a 4.32 ERA, 4.34 xERA, 1.50 WHIP and .263 xBA on the year. Even during his recent stretch of dominance, Gore allowed seven hits against Atlanta on August 23, and Ozuna went 1-for-3 against him in that game.
Ozuna is hitting .326 with nine doubles, five home runs and a .924 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
Meanwhile, Gore has allowed 26 doubles, eight home runs and a .271 batting average to right-handed hitters.
As you can see, this matchup favors Ozuna tonight. With either two hits (+210) or a double, he can clear this line.
Pick: Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Royals vs Yankees Player Props: Pham Takeover Time
In a matchup of would-be AL playoff teams, the Yankees took the first game, 10-4, over the Royals last night.
Pham was a non-factor for the Royals, going 0-for-5 with two strikeouts. However, Pham has a hit in five of his last eight games, and he's cleared this line in four of them.
Against Marcus Stroman, I like Pham's chances of getting back in the hit column.
Pham is 5-for-9 (.556) with a double, one RBI and a 1.381 lifetime OPS against Stroman. Since being acquired by the Cardinals, two of Pham's eight hits with the Royals are doubles.
Stroman has allowed 14 doubles and nine home runs to right-handed hitters.
Additionally, when watching Stroman this season, it seems like he's always in a jam, and the numbers back that up. He has a 1.42 WHIP and .269 xBA this year. In fact, at Yankee Stadium, those baserunners have turned into runs (4.86 ERA at home).
Pham has taken over as the Royals' leadoff hitter since joining the team, which will give four at-bats — and possibly a fifth depending on how the game goes.
However, if he continues his dominance over Stroman, he may not need all of them.
