The weekend ended rough, but Monday's slate offers a new opportunity to get back on track. I've chosen three starters who will help us do that.
So, let's dive into our three MLB player props for Monday, July 29, featuring bets for
MLB Player Props: Monday, July 29
- Yariel Rodriguez over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128, bet365)
- Nick Pivetta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-145, bet365)
- Logan Gilbert over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-180, bet365)
Yariel Rodriguez will pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles. While it may be a tough matchup on paper, Rodriguez has looked tremendous in July, and he's being undervalued heading into this outing.
Rodriguez has a 2.01 ERA in four starts this month and has struck out 25 batters in 22 innings of work. It's clear he's turned a corner and will face an Orioles lineup that is far less immune to striking out than their season-long numbers show.
Aside from the matchup, this total is mispriced, as Rodriguez has gone over this total in six of his 10 ten starts. Despite not having the largest sample size, the implied odds are well in favor of the over, and with Rodriguez averaging over a strikeout per inning on the season, he should eclipse this if he goes five this afternoon.
Nick Pivetta has quietly become one of the game's best strikeout artists over the last two seasons. Last year, his strikeout rate was 31.2 percent, and he ranked in the top seven percent of all qualified pitchers.
This year, his strikeout rate is 29.5 percent, which is in the top 11 percent of all qualified starters. For a pitcher like Pivetta, facing the Seattle Mariners is a dream matchup.
The Mariners have the highest team strikeout rate in baseball by a wide margin, and Pivetta's, which means Pivetta's strikeout upside is sky-high tonight. Overall, Pivetta has gone over this total in just half of his 16 starts, but he has recorded at least eight strikeouts each time.
He has proven that he can thrive in great matchups, so take his over tonight, and don't be afraid to climb the ladder with him.
We will stay in the same game, but we will switch sides now and focus on Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has quietly become one of the game's rare workhorse starters, as he has the second-most innings pitcher in baseball.
Much of that is due to him filling up the strike zone and getting outs efficiently in every way possible. Tonight, he'll face a red-hot Boston Red Sox lineup, but Gilbert has been rolling himself and will be the best pitcher they have faced over the last two weeks.
What makes this over such a good bet is Gilbert's consistency. He has pitched at least six innings in 86 percent of his starts this year, giving us staggering implied odds of -614.
This may be one of the rare times we see Gilbert's outs prop at 17.5 for the remainder of the season, so capitalize on it tonight.
