The Rangers took Game 1 of the ALCS on the road in Houston behind the dominant starting pitching of trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. He threw 6 1/3 innings, allowed no runs and five hits and struck out six to help the Rangers steal home-field advantage against their Lone Star State rival.
Nathan Eovaldi takes the ball in Game 2 against Framber Valdez of Houston, while both have had stellar recent playoff success.
The NLCS begins tonight in Philadelphia with each team's ace taking the mound. Zac Gallen is a Philly-area native making a homecoming in the biggest start of his career, while Zack Wheeler carries the lowest playoff WHIP in MLB history to the mound tonight against the upstart Arizona lineup.
Here are my thoughts on how to bet the pitchers in the LCS doubleheader.
Rangers vs. Astros Game 2
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | +106 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | -124 |
Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) vs. Framber Valdez (LHP)
Nathan Eovaldi looks healthier with each passing start in the playoffs. His fastball velocity really struggled throughout September in his limited work since returning from injury. In Eovaldi's first five outings post return in September, he only averaged 94 mph or higher with the fastball once.
His final start of the regular season against Seattle reached as high as 94.8 mph, even though the results were poor and the Mariners crushed him.
Eovaldi has now made two playoff starts — 95.1 mph fastball velocity vs. the Rays in the Wild Card Round and 95.8 mph in the ALDS against the Orioles. That's the hardest he's thrown his fastball since May.
The Astros may have the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball, but the market is still too low on his strikeout total here. The market has been playing catch-up on how to price Eovaldi for a while now, and I do expect him to have a solid leash given that the Rangers have already stolen Game 1 and are playing from ahead.
Given the placement of lefties in the Astros lineup, he should see at least 20 hitters. He may not face Yordan Alvarez a third time depending on the situation in the game, but over 4.5 at plus money is worth a bet as long as he gets to see Martin Maldonado twice.
Bet: Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+126 at FanDuel)
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Framber Valdez has been quite inconsistent with his command this season once again, and Texas is a really difficult matchup for him on paper. The Rangers chase at a bottom-five clip in all of baseball and that number is only further improved in the current version of the lineup because of Evan Carter's emergence.
Among Carter, Nathaniel Lowe and Corey Seager, all of the lefties that would be good matchups for Valdez on paper are difficult because of their elite plate discipline.
Valdez's walk prop is juiced to the over 1.5. I'd normally bet this with a neutral umpire, but Mark Ripperger has a large zone and has tended to favor pitchers with his zone. His BB boost is 0.92, meaning he gives out walks at a lower rate than normal umpires.
You can find Valdez over 1.5 walks at -200 at BetMGM, but the umpire keeps me from betting it.
Bet: Pass
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 1
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7 -115o / -105u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +132 | 7 -115o / -105u | -162 |
Zac Gallen (RHP) vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Even if Zac Gallen isn't all that effective on Monday night in Philadelphia, Torey Lovullo needs length out of his ace. He's already announced that Gallen will not pitch on short rest in this series, which lines Gallen up to throw in Game 5.
Lovullo doesn't have the same bullpen depth that Rob Thomson does on the other side either, so I fully expect to see Gallen pitch to the top Phillies hitters a third time through the order.
The Phillies' game plan last week against Braves ace Spencer Strider was to swing early in counts and try to avoid getting to two strikes. Given this approach, the Phillies are a pretty aggressive lineup that is likely to be swinging away early in counts before Gallen can get to his elite secondary stuff.
A lot of books are pricing Gallen at 15.5 outs recorded juiced to the under, and 15 is obviously the key number here. You're betting on Gallen to throw at least five innings, which he easily managed to surpass in both of his two playoff outings against much more patient lineups in the Brewers and the Dodgers.
He also recorded more than 14.5 outs in both of those outings despite inconsistent command — Gallen walked five batters in his 11 1/3 playoff innings so far. The Diamondbacks lack of good lefty options in the 'pen likely means he faces Bryce Harper three times, which would get him to at least 21 hitters.
As a result, I'd bet Gallen over 14.5 outs recorded at -175 or better.
Bet: Zac Gallen Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-146 at FanDuel)
Like Ripperger, home plate umpire Andy Fletcher is a pitcher-friendly umpire. His run boost is 7% below average, and he's friendly around the edges for pitchers. Given Zack Wheeler's elite command, that's a major key for Wheeler getting called strikes against a very disciplined Arizona lineup that doesn't chase much and also doesn't swing and miss a lot.
The Diamondbacks should put a lot of balls in play against Wheeler, who walked just 39 batters in 32 starts this season. The Phillies will be extra weary of giving out free passes because of the speed that Arizona has on the base paths, and there's no one in the Arizona lineup to really pitch around.
Of pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown this season, only six had better Location+ numbers, per FanGraphs. Wheeler struggled with walks mostly early in the season, but he's been as good as anyone since then at limiting walks.
As a result, I'm betting Wheeler under 1.5 walks, -120 at BetMGM.
Bet: Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 Walks (-120 at BetMGM)
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