It's Super Tuesday again, which means all 30 MLB teams will suit up to take the field.
That gives us plenty of opportunities to find value in the player prop market, and I've found two pitchers worth backing on Tuesday evening.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Blue Jays vs. White Sox | Blue Jays -130 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Kevin Gausman has struggled in recent weeks. His last seven starts have been severely worse than his first six, and he's in danger of no longer being the pitching fWAR leader (3.1).
But this line has finally gotten too low.
Gausman hasn't cashed this in three straight starts, and he's allowed nine earned runs over just 12 innings during the stretch.
But that could just mean he's undervalued.
Gausman cashed this number in nine of his first 10 2022 starts and 27 of 35 starts last season. Since the start of last season, his 79% hit rate to this number would imply -380 odds to the over.
And although Gausman has struggled in recent starts, he still ranks in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers in swinging-strike rate (16.1%). His splitter and slider still force a nearly 45% whiff rate, and he still ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate.
Pitches with the most Swing and Misses (6/11/2022):
1. Matt Swarmer's Slider (13)
2. Kevin Gausman's Splitter (11)
3. Lucas Giolito's Fastball (10)
4. Charlie Morton's Fastball (9) pic.twitter.com/ueI0neDOnc— GleyberMetrics (@GleyberMetrics) June 12, 2022
The White Sox lineup has become somewhat more respectable this season. But as they've started to swing the bat better, they've also struck out more. The White Sox have the third-lowest strikeout rate this season against RHPs (20.1%) but they rank 12th over the past month (21.2%).
All in all, Gausman's strikeout total should never be as low as 4.5. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Gausman for 6.6 strikeouts Tuesday evening, giving us nearly an 18% edge over the current line.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Jonathan Heasley Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
| Royals vs. Angels | Royals +150 |
| First Pitch | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Jon Heasley has struggled in the Big Leagues so far. He's allowed an xERA above 5.00 in 10 starts with the Royals, and his Minor League strikeout abilities have yet to translate.
However, he has cashed this number in two of his last four starts. And there is reason to believe he's settling into his Major League rotation role.
Someone asked if I had any thoughts about Jon Heasley’s recent success. Here’s a couple things that I’ve seen from him…
First two starts:
– 2 K, 7 BB
– ~42.9% fastballs
– 36.3% Zone%Last four starts:
– 20 K, 11 BB
– 52.6% fastballs
– 39% Zone%More fastballs. More strikes.
— Royals Farm Report (@RoyalsFarm) June 13, 2022
Plus, I'm willing to fade the Angels offense on Tuesday night.
The Angels strike out at the highest rate in the league against RHPs, at 26.3%. But over the past month, the same Angels lineup is striking out at an even higher 28.5% rate against righties.
Moreover, the Halos have posted just a 95 wRC+ during the last month, a bottom-10 mark in MLB.
Heasley has yet to prove himself in the Majors, but he has the stuff to force swings and misses. His fastball averages above 95 mph, and he ranks above the 70th percentile in both fastball spin rate and curveball spin rate. There's a reason he struck out over 10 batters per nine in Double-A and Triple-A ball.
Heasley just needs to find the right time to break out, and I believe this is a great opportunity for him to do so.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for 4.8 Ks on Tuesday, giving us a solid 3% edge to work with.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
