After taking a good, long look at today's MLB player prop market using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I've identified two player props with value today.
I've found one for each game, targeting overs on the Braves' starting pitcher and the Red Sox's designated hitter.
Our Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| Braves vs. Dodgers | Braves (+145) |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Charlie Morton has been on a tear recently. He posted a 2.60 ERA and a 2.56 FIP in his six September starts, allowing just a .496 OPS in the process. He then started his postseason off with six innings of shutout ball against Milwaukee before allowing a two-run shot to Rowdy Tellez in the seventh inning.
During those six innings, Morton struck out nine Milwaukee batters, which is nothing really new. This season, he ranks in the 76th percentile in strikeouts per inning (1.17) and in the 81st percentile in called strike plus whiff rate (30.9%).
For today's line, Morton has struck out six or more batters in 25 of his 35 starts this season, good for a 71% hit rate. That includes his last start against the Dodgers this season, where he struck out eight over six innings in Los Angeles.
Today, our Action Labs Player Props tool has Morton projected for seven strikeouts flat. That gives us a 25.5% edge on the current plus-money line being offered at DraftKings.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
| Red Sox vs. Astros | Red Sox (-125) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
When J.D. Martinez is going, the whole Boston offense goes. And Martinez is absolutely crushing the ball this postseason.
Through six postseason games, Martinez is 11-for-26 (.423) with five extra-base hits and a 1.310 OPS. During those six games, he's cashed his bases prop in four of them.
Moreover, he's collected 11 bases against Houston in just the past two games. That adds to his cumulative total of 21 against the Astros in 10 games against them.
Martinez already loves hitting at Fenway, as he's compiled a .890 OPS at home compared to a .840 OPS on the road. However, he has an excellent matchup today.
Lifetime against Astros starter Zack Greinke, Martinez is 5-for-18 with two home runs and a walk. However, he's posted an average exit velocity of 98.2 mph on those batted balls, and it's produced a ridiculous 1.368 xSLG.
As Greinke has gotten older, he's had to get much craftier. Greinke has slowly thrown more and more off-speed and breaking pitches in his elder years. Unfortunately for him, Martinez has been all over those pitches this season.
J.D. Martinez slugged .672 on breaking pitches against RHP this season — best in MLB (League Avg: .417).#DirtyWater | #Postseasonpic.twitter.com/nq0ZOSWVKZ
— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) October 19, 2021
Greinke has posted an ERA north of 10 in his last five appearances, and Martinez has a good chance to increase those numbers in Game 4. I'll happily play this prop at plus-money.
