The final day of the season with multiple MLB games is here, and both spots in the World Series could be clinched in tonight's doubleheader.
The Phillies and Diamondbacks return to Philadelphia on Monday with the Phillies leading 3-2, one game from a second consecutive National League pennant. Aaron Nola and Merrill Kelly will take the mound in a rematch of the Phillies' 10-0 Game 2 victory.
In the nightcap, the Astros and Rangers will conclude their epic seven-game matchup. The road team has won all six games in the series and Texas will send Max Scherzer to the mound to save its season. He'll be countered by Houston right-hander Cristian Javier, who has been dominant in both of his playoff outings in 2023.
Here are my favorite ways to play pitchers props in NLCS Game 6 and ALCS Game 7.
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Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 6
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 8 -104o / -118u | +152 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 8 -104o / -118u | -180 |
Merrill Kelly
The top of the Phillies' lineup has crushed Diamondbacks starters the third time through the order in this series.
Zac Gallen pitched really well for five innings on Saturday night in Game 5 until he gave up two home runs to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in three batters, effectively ending the game with the Phillies doubling their lead to 4-0.
In Game 2, Merrill Kelly also pitched quite well for five innings, but then faced Schwarber in the sixth and the Phillies slugger expanded the lead to 3-0 and set off a six-run sixth inning to end that game.
The Diamondbacks' high-leverage relievers are mostly rested because of the off day and the fact that Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald did not pitch at all in Game 5.
My expectation is that Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo will employ the same strategy with Kelly as he did with Brandon Pfaadt in Game 2. Pfaadt had thrown 5 2/3 scoreless, but he still refused to let Pfaadt face Schwarber a third time.
Instead, Lovullo will use one of his lefty options in that spot to prevent the big homer on Tuesday.
Since they're facing elimination, the leash for Kelly has to be extremely short. That means 18 batters for Kelly, and it'll be very hard for him to record more than 15 outs in 18 batters.
Arizona's bullpen has to be all-in here, and for the most part, that bullpen has kept the Phillies off the board relatively well in this series.
Trust Lovullo to play the numbers and keep Kelly from facing Schwarber three times, like he did in Game 3. I'd lay up to -200 on this prop.
Bet: Merrill Kelly Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-200 or better)
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola's walk props continue to underestimate his elite command abilities. He's gone under the 1.5 number in all three of his playoff starts thus far, and also went under the number in his final two regular season starts of the year. Nola ranks in the top four among all qualified starters in Location+, a metric that tracks a pitcher's ability to command his pitches.
The Diamondbacks are a pretty patient offense that will take its walks in general and not chase pitches outside of the zone. For a pitcher like Nola who is in the zone as much as any pitcher in MLB, that works to his advantage. Nola was able to consistently pound first pitch strikes in Game 2 and get ahead of Arizona hitters.
I do expect the Diamondbacks to tweak their approach and be more aggressive in this matchup and not take as many called strikes. As a result, I love under 1.5 walks at -170 or better.
Bet: Aaron Nola Under 1.5 Walks (-167 or better)
Rangers vs Astros Game 7
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 9 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 9 -105o / -115u | -130 |
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer's stat line wasn't good at all in the Game 3 outing against the Astros, but the underlying pitch metrics present a different story. The biggest concern I had with Scherzer was that his stuff would not come back after the shoulder injury. Given his fastball velocity was higher in that start than it was for his regular season average, that was not a problem.
Scherzer's main issue was his lack of feel and command of the slider, his top secondary pitch. For me, that can be more attributed to rust than anything else. Scherzer had an elite 42% CSW on the fastball and had an excellent curveball as well in the outing. If Scherzer finds the slider feel, his numbers are too low.
We know at this point that Bruce Bochy has no faith in his middle relief. He trusts three relievers in the bullpen — Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc. Bochy is more likely to ride a decently effective Scherzer than yank him early. Scherzer unders will be a popular bet here after Game 3's debacle, but I don't agree with it.
Bet: Scherzer over 12.5 outs recorded (-108 at FanDuel)
Cristian Javier
It's been hard for the market to upgrade Cristian Javier fast enough after his two dominant playoff outings. The right-hander is registering his best Stuff+ metrics all season long on both the fastball and slider. The results are following closely behind that.
His fastball allowed an 88 mph average exit velocity in Game 3. He managed seven whiffs in 22 swings on the pitch. The Rangers tried to lay off his slider entirely — just five swings in 22 pitches. They whiffed once and took five called strikes with the pitch.
The plan for Texas was clearly to hunt the fastball, but they still weren't able to hit it hard or effectively at all. That's the beauty of the unique Javier fastball. Trying to predict how Dusty Baker will manage a Game 7 is tricky, but I'd lean toward the Javier overs on outs as well.
He clearly trusts Javier, and once you've earned the trust of Baker, you're going to get the benefit of the doubt in a big spot.
Bet: Javier over 12.5 Outs Recorded (+112 at FanDuel)
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