MLB Player Props For Friday, May 19
Yesterday, we went 2-1 and moved to 4-1 on player props this week. We were one K away from the sweep. However, I have my eye on another strikeout prop with Zac Gallen on the mound. His Diamondbacks will be in Pittsburgh to battle the Pirates
For the first time this season, the Orioles will take on the Blue Jays in Toronto. With Kyle Gibson and Yusei Kikuchi opposing each other, there could be a lot of runs on the board. Several hitters are in favorable spots in this matchup, but I am targeting Ryan Mountcastle against the lefty Kikuchi.
In San Diego, the Padres will host the Boston Red Sox. That means Xander Bogaerts will be taking on his former team for the first time in his career. The former teammate he may be most excited to see is James Paxton.
Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
A couple of months ago, I recommended betting Zac Gallen to win the NL Cy Young at +1700. While he has a long way to go before he can cash that ticket and win his first Cy Young, he is currently the betting favorite at +180 on FanDuel. Gallen is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. It also does not hurt that he has piled up 70 strikeouts in 57.1 innings.
Gallen is on pace for 258 strikeouts this season, which would shatter his career-high. He has struck out seven batters in six of nine starts; he also had six strikeouts in two other starts, including last time out against the Giants.
The only start when Gallen did not approach this line was his three-strikeout performance against the Padres in his second start of the season. However, a few weeks later, he struck out 11 against San Diego.
Tonight, he gets the Pirates, who rank 10th in strikeout percentage (23.7%) against right-handed pitchers. Five straight and seven of the last nine right-handed pitchers have gone over their strikeout lines when facing Pittsburgh. Four of them had at least seven strikeouts. Gallen should have ample opportunity to go over this line: He has pitched at least 6 and 1/3 innings in six of his nine starts.
Additionally, the Pirates have scored three runs or fewer in 13 of their last 15 games. They did bust out for eight Wednesday against Detroit, but the trend may continue against Gallen. If he has a quality six- or seven-inning start, then he will likely amass seven strikeouts as well.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
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Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Yesterday, Ryan Mountcastle was a popular bet as he faced left-hander Tyler Anderson. Mountcastle had a rough day, going 0-for-4 with a strikeout that stranded two baserunners and ended the game as his Orioles lost 6-5 to the Angels. As a result, some may be hesitant to go right back to him the very next day. However, I love his matchup today.
Against left-handed pitching, Mountcastle is hitting .322 with 16 runs batted in and a .994 OPS. Five of his nine home runs have come against lefties. He has four hits in nine career at-bats against Yusei Kikuchi. All of them have been for extra bases with a double and three home runs. He is +450 on DraftKings to hit a home run tonight.
Kikuchi has been up and down this season, but he has an 5.01 xERA. He ranks in the fourth percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 12th percentile in Hard Hit percentage. A hard hit ball off Mountcastle's bat may leave the yard. However a few at-bats against Kikuchi should result in either an extra base hit or two hits to give him two bases.
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
| Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres | |
| First Pitch | 9:41 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Xander Bogaerts spent the first 10 years of his big league career with the Boston Red Sox. He played a role in the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2013 and 2018. With the game being in San Diego, he will not get the standing ovation that he might receive at Fenway Park. However, Bogaerts will likely be fired up to face his old team, particularly James Paxton.
In the month of May, Bogaerts is hitting .208, which has brought his average down to .275 for the season after a hot start. Nevertheless, he is 7-for-23 (.304) with two doubles, three home runs, and six runs batted in against Paxton. In his first start since 2021, Paxton flashed his vintage strikeout stuff with nine Ks in five innings. He also gave up four hits and two runs.
Bogaerts has hit this line in three of his last six games, but he is entering play on a six-game hitting streak. In that span, he has two doubles and a two-hit game. Moreover, he will have a better chance of hitting this line since the game is at Petco Park. At home, Bogaerts is hitting .322 with a .906 OPS compared to .219 with a .687 OPS on the road. If Bogaerts extends his hitting streak to seven, he may get two bases in the process.
Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases |
