Two pitchers show value from a strikeout perspective today on Thursday's MLB slate. I'm looking to back a Colorado stalwart and an unimpressive Toronto left-hander.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Germán Márquez — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Rockies @ Nationals | Rockies -105, Nationals -115 |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
There are plenty of amazing aces in MLB today. That list extends from Jacob deGrom to Sandy Alcantara.
But Germán Márquez deserves some recognition on that list.
Márquez has been the Rockies' best pitcher for years now. He's been struggling this season, but he's due for plenty of negative regression. Márquez pairs a 6.14 ERA with a 4.57 xERA and 3.58 xFIP, with his lackluster basic stats inflamed by a .360 BABIP.
I trust Márquez to give us length in this matchup against a whimpering Nationals lineup. He also gives his impressive stuff. Márquez ranks above the 75th percentile in both curveball spin rate and chase rate, and he has cashed over this number in six of his eight starts this season as a result.
Moreover, Márquez has cashed over 4.5 Ks in four straight starts. His pitch count has gone up slightly in recent starts, with him eclipsing 90 pitches in three straight starts after being pulled in the five starts beforehand.
The Nationals are an impressively disciplined team, but that didn't stop Márquez from striking out five Nats in just 77 pitches back on May 3. Márquez is not scared of this lineup, and he has the length and ability to easily cash this ridiculously low number.
Márquez has struck out five or more in 29 of his last 40 starts anyways, a 73% hit rate that implies -264 odds to the over. Our Action Labs Projections mark Márquez for 4.7 Ks today, and I'm too tempted by the plus-money number to stay away.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Hyun Jin Ryu — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Blue Jays @ Angels | Blue Jays +135, Angels -165 |
| First Pitch | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Hyun Jin Ryu has had a tough year. His ERA sits at 6.00 through four lackluster starts, and his strikeout numbers are way down after six productive years in Los Angeles.
There is still hope for Ryu. His xFIP is still hanging around 4.00, although that's mostly based on a walk rate that's stayed south of 4%. But despite his horrific average exit velocity, Ryu has kept his xERA below 5.00 as well.
Ryu is due for some level of positive regression, no matter how little that is.
However, from a gambler's perspective, we may be targeting Ryu at the perfect time. He's never been as undervalued in his career, as I can't remember the last time Ryu's strikeout total was just 3.5.
The Angels are firing on the offensive end, but they are still striking out at a top-10 rate against righties this season (24.9%). This team can be strikeout prone, and it could also be the perfect team for Ryu's revival.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Ryu for a whopping 5.4 strikeouts on Thursday, making this our top-rated props play of the day.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
