It's game 162. Enjoy the last day of a full baseball slate until next April, baseball bettors.
Sadly, there is little-to-no entropy on the last day of the season.
But our Action Labs projections don't sleep. We have one more full slate to make our best value picks using the statistical tools we have.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Davis Martin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Twins vs. White Sox | White Sox -120 |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I can't find much on Davis Martin. He was a strikeout machine on his way up the Minors, picking up double-digit K/9 numbers in Rookie ball, High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A.
He has yet to capitalize on it in the Show. Martin has made eight starts with a K/9 below 7.00. He eclipsed six strikeouts in just one of his eight starts his year, that being the last one against San Diego.
Martin has been pitching well…
Davis Martin has a 1.99 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, & 18% K-BB%, w/ a .281 BABIP, 84.1% LOB%, & 3.8% HR/F in Sept.
Season-long metrics on the slider:
-23.7% SwStr%
-.253 SLG
-.221 wOBA
-Above-average break & drop📹Slider pic.twitter.com/auYKEn5gpU
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 2, 2022
But I don't trust the rookie to go over this number. Not when the projections are against him.
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 4.3 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 3.8 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.66 Ks
Martin is facing a solid and disciplined Minnesota lineup (see: Luis Arraez) that has held the last two White Sox pitchers under their strikeout totals. Martin managed just two strikeouts over 69 pitches the last time he faced this lineup.
Fade Martin today.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Shohei Ohtani Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-116)
| Angels vs. Athletics | Angels -225 |
| First Pitch | 4 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I am unsure how hard they are going to push Shohei Ohtani today. He could be pulled early because the season is over. Or maybe they let him go because he's put together such a remarkable season.
Even if the latter is true, the under is still in play. The under is a lock if the former is true. So I'm going to take my shot with fading Ohtani today.
Shohei strikeouts out more than seven batters about half the time. However, that number has gone down slightly in recent months. He's only struck out eight or more in four of his last 10 starts and has averaged just 6.8 strikeouts per start during the stretch.
While he did strike out 10 A's in his last outing…
It's nights like these where we have to truly appreciate how lucky we are to witness Shohei Ohtani. pic.twitter.com/mbpiZ1GffP
— MLB (@MLB) September 30, 2022
He failed to reach this number in his previous two starts against the A's earlier this year. He recorded just 12 total strikeouts over about 190 pitches in those outings.
The projections have him staying under:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 7.0 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 6.99 Ks
So I will bet he stays under, too.
Pick: Under 7.5 Ks (-116)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
