It's a relatively action-packed Monday in the baseball world today, with 12 different games on the slate to target.
I'm fading two pitchers tonight in the props market. Read on to see why.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jordan Lyles Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Orioles @ Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
At some point, Jordan Lyles has to be a bit overvalued. He's gone over this number in four straight starts after cashing this in just 16 of his prior 36.
He also smoked these Yankees last time out, pitching seven full innings of two-run ball while striking out eight and walking none.
But I wouldn't expect the Bronx Bombers to stay down long. New York has posted the highest wRC+, the second-highest walk rate and the 10th-lowest strikeout rate over the last month.
This Yankee lineup is clicking on cylinders, and I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from them after getting embarrassed five days ago.
It's also hard to trust that Lyles has turned it around with Baltimore. He still ranks below the 30th percentile in whiff rate, swinging strike rate and CSW rate. He'll get 90-100 pitches, but he doesn't have the stuff to eclipse 7.00 K/9 over a full season.
Lyles' strikeout regression begins tonight. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Lyles for 4.2 Ks tonight, while FanGraphs' SaberSim projections have him closer to 3.5.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Zach Logue Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-157)
| Athletics @ Mariners | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Zach Logue had a couple of years with Toronto's farm system in which he posted solid strikeout numbers. He eclipsed 12.5 K/9 with the Blue Jays' Double-A team last year and was close to 11 K/9 with their Triple-A team in 2019.
Otherwise, Logue has never been one to miss bats. In 33 2/3 innings this year between Triple-A and MLB with the A's, Logue has posted about 7 K/9 — right in line with his career averages.
Logue's CSW rate sits in just the 13th percentile of pitchers (24.3%), and he doesn't have the velocity (90 MPH fastball) or spin rates (2016 RPM on fastball) to effectively miss bats.
Logue managed to get over this number against Detroit and Minnesota, but I don't love the matchup against Seattle. The Mariners were quite poor against southpaws last season, but all of their numbers are up against that side this year.
Either way, Logue still has a tight leash on him. He hasn't thrown more than 90 pitches in any start this season, and that's why I believe there's value on his under here.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-157)
