For my Friday MLB player props, I'll be looking into outs recorded, hits allowed and strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers:
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Friday, April 11
MLB Prop Picks — Friday, April 11
- Bailey Falter Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120, bet365)
- Ronel Blanco Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (- 155, DraftKings)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
Pirates vs Reds Player Props: Falter Won't Last
Last week, we backed Bailey Falter because he was not getting enough respect against the Yankees. He did his job by racking up strikeouts, but only lasted four innings. Today, he is going to face the Cincinnati Reds in what has become one of the best hitters' ballparks in the league.
Falter is not a pitcher who profiles to succeed in the Great American Ballpark, as he allows a lot of hard contact. He throws a ton of strikes, but hitters have used that against him as he has a 55.9% hard-hit rate against through three starts.
That rate ranks in the eighth percentile, which is why Falter holds an 8.10 ERA. With the Pirates bullpen rested, Falter's leash is likely to be short when the Reds start hitting him hard.
Don't expect Falter to get a third look at the Cincinnati lineup, as he'll exit before the sixth.
Angels vs Astros Player Props: Fade Blanco
Next, we turn our attention to the Angels lineup when we target Houston Astros starter Ronel Blanco. The Angels have been much better than expected, ranking 13th in batting average against righties and seventh in hard-hit rate.
While Blanco is due for a lot of positive regression, his issue through two starts this season has been command. Blanco has consistently fallen behind hitters, which has led to hitters holding an xBA of .311 against him.
This over has quite a bit of juice attached to it, but DraftKings' price is a significant discount compared to sharper books, which are close to -200.
Blanco allowed at least four hits in 66% of his starts last season and has averaged four hits allowed through two starts this year. Back the Angels to stay hot and create traffic tonight.
Cubs vs Dodgers Player Props: Back Yamamoto To Stay Hot
Lastly, we head to Chavez Ravine, where Yoshinobu Yamamoto will face the Chicago Cubs for the second time this season. Yamamoto picked up four strikeouts in five innings when he faced the Cubs in Japan, but Yamamoto showed against the Tigers that he is an elite strikeout artist and due for more strikeouts in this outing.
If Yamamoto can get ahead of Cubs hitters tonight, he should have no issue finishing them off. Chicago struggles mightily against splitters, curveballs and sliders.
Take Yamamoto to stay hot and positively regress in the strikeout column tonight.
