For my Saturday MLB player props, I'll be looking into hits allowed and strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers: Jesus Luzardo, Robbie Ray, and Framber Valdez.
Let's dive into my MLB player props, picks for Saturday, April 26.
MLB Prop Picks — Saturday, April 26
- Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+115, bet365)
- Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)
Phillies vs Cubs Player Props: Luzardo Keeps Shining
Jesus Luzardo has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for when they acquired him this past offseason.
The lethal lefty is off to a stellar start, boasting a 2.08 ERA with no regression in sight.
A big part of his early success has been his ability to strike out batters — he ranks in the 83rd percentile of qualified starting pitchers in strikeout rate.
However, he will be tested today by the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs have been excellent against lefties and are one of the most disciplined teams in the league, but they are not immune to swinging strikes.
Luzardo has found something in a Phillies uniform, and we're getting a great price to back him in a tough matchup.
Rangers vs Giants Player Props: Texas Will Hit Ray Hard
Next, we target another lefty in Giants starter Robbie Ray.
He hasn't looked great in his first five starts of the season, with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.
Most importantly, Ray has allowed a ton of hard contact, and that has him due for significant regression, given his xERA of 5.09.
While the Rangers have not quite gotten it going at the dish, they are plenty dangerous against lefties.
Texas leads the league in hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching, and its team batting average is due to rise about 16 points.
Back the Rangers to knock around Ray this afternoon.
Astros vs Royals Player Props: Back Valdez on a Good Matchup
To complete the hat trick of lefties, we turn to Framber Valdez.
The Houston Astros starter has allowed a bit more contact this season, and that has impacted his counting stats greatly.
However, his average CSW is above 28%. That's not indicative of a starter who is going to have a low strikeout total. Last season, Valdez eclipsed this mark in 69% of his starts, and he's primed to notch his third over tonight against the Royals.
Kansas City has been surprisingly feeble at the plate, ranking last among MLB lineups in Expected wOBACON and having one of the highest chase rates in the league.
Weak contact, combined with poor discipline, is what makes Valdez a great value bet on Saturday's slate.
