For my Saturday MLB player props, I'll be looking into hits allowed and strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers — and coincidentally, they're all unders.
Among those picks are Cleveland's Gavin Williams, Chicago's Jonathan Cannon and Los Angeles' Jose Soriano.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, April 16.
MLB Prop Picks — Wednesday, April 16
- Gavin Williams Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- Jonathan Cannon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, bet365)
- Jose Soriano Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120, DraftKings)
Guardians vs Orioles Player Props: Few Punchouts for Williams
Gavin Williams has shown plenty of promise through his first three starts of the season, but he will be tested by the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
Williams has navigated trouble by generating soft contact and racking up a solid amount of strikeouts, but his command and tendency to fall behind hitters are a concern against a Baltimore lineup that can score in bunches.
The Orioles are showing signs of cutting down on strikeouts, as they boast the 12th-lowest chase rate and hold the sixth-highest zone contact rate. That's a bad profile for Williams, who has relied heavily on batters chasing while ranking in just the 59th percentile in whiff rate.
Fade Williams tonight because the Orioles are going to make him work and jump on any pitch they can.
A's vs White Sox Player Props: Fade Cannon Against Oakland
Last week, I faced Jonathan Cannon and was shocked to see him strike out six Guardians while allowing six earned runs. He got to that number because the White Sox left him out to dry in a getaway game.
Well, they're in that spot again, as Sean Burke went just 3 1/3 innings yesterday.
However, the issue is that Cannon is in line for another rough outing. This Athletics' lineup has been much better than expected and is due for positive regression.
They rank 11th in hard-hit rate and are in the top half of the league in zone contact rate while sitting 10th in chase rate.
The Athletics should punish Cannon, who has had consistent command issues and went under this total in 71% of his starts last season.
Angels vs Rangers Player Props: Strong Showing for Soriano?
Jose Soriano is finally looking as dominant as his stuff says he should. Soriano is one of the game's best groundball artists, with his groundball rate currently in the 95th percentile.
That's can be attributed to his sinker that averages 97 MPH. His sinker should contain a Rangers lineup that has been cold to start the year.
Texas comes into this matchup with the fourth-lowest xBA in the majors. Much of its soft contact has led to fly-balls, but only 6.3% of hitters have lifted the ball against Soriano this season — nearly 10% lower than the league average.
With the Rangers not showing any signs of life at the plate and Soriano putting hitters away with ease, don't expect many knocks from Texas tonight.
