Happy Friday!
Roll into the weekend with our two favorite MLB player props, courtesy of our Action Labs Projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Sean Manaea Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-132)
| Padres vs. Rockies | Padres -160 |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
The Padres have struggled against the Rockies this season. San Diego is just 7-9 against Colorado this year and 1-6 at Coors Field.
However, the Padres are playing their best baseball right now while the Rockies are slowing down for the last stretch of the season. Much of the Padres' success has been on the back of their pitching.
Sean Manaea hasn't been an excellent pitcher this season, but he's been rather unlucky. His 5.17 ERA is paired with a 4.07 xERA and 3.94 xFIP. An uber-low 66.7% Strand Rate will do that to you.
One of the driving forces of his expected statistics is his Strikeout Rate. Manaea is on pace to strike out more than nine batters per nine innings for the second straight season, thanks largely to elite extension (98th percentile).
A career-high 13 Ks for Sean Manaea. 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/HHVkMhX1Zt
— MLB (@MLB) July 23, 2021
Manaea has missed this number in his last two starts, but this line is generally too low for him. He's cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in 22 of 25 starts this season excluding the last 10 days, and in 47 of 57 dating back to the start of 2021.
Manaea pitched once against Colorado earlier this season in Coors, allowing just two earned over six and a third innings of work. He fanned five Rockies over fewer than 100 pitches with a 31% CSW Rate.
The Rox have a half-decent offense, but they've posted the 12th-highest Strikeout Rate and seventh-lowest wRC+ against southpaws over the past week.
I trust Manaea to strike out at least four in his start tonight, and so do the projections:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.9 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.2 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.4 Ks
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-132)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Mets vs. Athletics | Mets -230 |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Chris Bassitt is putting together another career year. He should reach the 3.0 fWAR mark for the second straight season while keeping his ERA in the low-3.00s. He's also on pace to post the lowest xERA of his career (3.28).
Bassitt's never been the biggest strikeout guy, relying more on forcing weak contact, but his numbers have slowly gone up throughout his career.
Bassitt has actually eclipsed the 5.5-strikeout mark in more than half his starts this season, yet we're getting this line at plus-money on FanDuel.
There's no better lineup in baseball to fade than the A's. The Athletics have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against righties this season and almost 27% of the time over the last month. The A's have also allowed four of the last six pitchers they've faced to go over their strikeout totals.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Bassitt for 6.6 strikeouts today while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 5.8. Either way, there's value with him today.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
